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NZD/USD Weekly Analysis Forecast, May 18-22, 2015 – Forecast

Weekly Analysis and Recommendation (NZD/USD Analysis Forecast):

The NZD/USD dipped 26 points to 0.7474 after trading above 75 this week. The US dollar weakened most of the week, while a lack of stimulus from China weighed on the commodity currency as traders had been pushing up prices on expectations.  The New Zealand economy is overly reliant on “milk, houses and disaster” and will see a significant slowdown in economic growth rates in the near future as recent one-off stimulus wear off, said Labour finance spokesman Grant Robertson.

In a speech ahead of the May 21 government budget, he said the record migration surge explained almost half the current economic growth rate of 3.3 percent, while the Canterbury earthquake rebuild was estimated to account for about a third of current growth.

The New Zealand dollar is set to end the week largely unchanged, belying the volatility that saw it fall to a two-month low midweek as expectations grew that the Reserve Bank may cut interest rates as early as next month.

The kiwi dropped to a two-month low of 73.14 US cents on Wednesday, shortly after the Reserve Bank announced additional measures to try and dampen Auckland’s bubbling housing market, on concern that a price correction could threaten financial stability. Stepping up measures to tackle the housing market was seen as giving the Reserve Bank additional freedom to reduce interest rates as it eyes weaker dairy commodity prices and an elevated currency.

ForexTraq provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review in forex trading. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information for NZD/USD in our weekly reports and we provide daily updates and outlooks.

nzdusd week

Major Economic Events for the week that you should be monitoring for NZD/USD in forex trading

Cur. Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

Monday, May 18, 2015

Tuesday, May 19, 2015

  AUD Monetary Meeting Minutes

 

  GBP CPI (YoY)

 

  EUR German ZEW Economic Sentiment

 

49.0

53.3

  EUR CPI (YoY)

 

0.0%

0.0%

  USD Building Permits (Apr)

 

1.065M

1.042M

  CAD BoC Gov Poloz Speaks

 

Wednesday, May 20, 2015

  GBP BoE MPC Meeting Minutes

 

  USD FOMC Meeting Minutes

 

Thursday, May 21, 2015

  CNY HSBC Manufacturing

 

49.4

48.9

  EUR German Manufacturing

 

52.3

52.1

  GBP Retail Sales

 

0.4%

-0.5%

  USD Existing Home Sales

 

5.24M

5.19M

  USD Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing

 

8.2

7.5

Friday, May 22, 2015

  EUR German GDP

 

0.3%

0.3%

  EUR German Manufacturing

 

52.1

  EUR German Ifo Business

 

108.3

108.6

  USD Core CPI

 

0.2%

0.2%

Government Bond Auctions

Date Time Country

May 18 09:30 Germany Eur 1.5bn 12M (May 2016) Bubills

May 18 10:00 Belgium Auctions OLOs

May 20 09:03 Sweden Holds bond auction

May 21 08:30 Spain Auctions Bonos

May 21 09:03 Sweden Holds bond exchange auction

May 21 09:10 France Auctions BTANs

May 21 09:30 UK Auctions 4.75% 2030 Conventional Gilt

May 21 10:10 France Auctions

May 21 15:30 Italy Announces details of CTZ/BTPei on 26 May

May 21 15:00 US Announces details of 2-year FRN on 27 May, plus 2/5/7 year

May 21 17:00 US Auctions 10-year TIPs

May 22 09:03 Sweden Holds bond exchange auction

May 22 10:00 Norway Details bond auction on 27 May

NZD/USD analysis forecast

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