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NZD/USD Weekly Fundamental Analysis, May 11 – 15, 2015 – Forecast

Weekly Analysis and Recommendation (NZD/USD Forecast 2015 May):

The NZD/USD ended the week at 0.7495 gaining on Friday as traders watched central bank action and dairy prices last week. Also the possibility of stimulus from the PBOC in the near term helped buoy the currency over the week.  THE New Zealand dollar slipped to its lowest in more than three weeks as traders anticipate better US jobless numbers point to a good employment report, boding well for the world’s largest economy.

US data on Friday showed initial claims for state unemployment benefits rose a mere 3000 to a seasonally adjusted 265,000 for the week ended May 2, a better result than economists had expected. That boosted optimism that a key employment report will show the US added more jobs last month, paving the way for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates.

Traders have raised their expectations for a rate cut in New Zealand after data this week showed slowing wage growth, and are pricing in 36 basis points of cuts to the 3.5 percent official cash rate over the coming 12 months. At the same time, they’ve lowered their expectation for Australia’s central bank to cut rates further after governor Glenn Stevens dropped reference to a bias on Tuesday, though today’s monetary policy statement kept the door open for looser policy.

ForexTraq provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review in forex trading. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information for nzd/usd in our weekly reports and we provide daily updates and outlooks.

nzd/usd chart

Major Economic Events for the week that you should be monitoring in forex trading:

MONDAY, MAY 11

UK

GBP

BoE Asset Purchase Facility

£375

£375

UK

GBP

BoE Interest Rate Decision

0.5%

0.5%

TUESDAY, MAY 12

UK

GBP

NIESR GDP Estimate (3M) (Apr)

0.6%

WEDNESDAY, MAY 13

DE

EUR

Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) (Q1)

0.7%

EMU

EUR

Gross Domestic Product (YoY) (Q1)

0.9%

UK

GBP

BOE’s Governor Carney speech

UK

GBP

Bank of England Quarterly Inflation Report

EMU

EUR

ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts

US

USD

Retail Sales ex Autos (MoM) (Apr)

0.4%

US

USD

Retail Sales (MoM) (Apr)

0.9%

FRIDAY, MAY 15

JP

JPY

Bank of Japan Governor Kuroda Speech

Government Bond Auctions

Date Time Country

May 12 09:15 Norway Holds bond auction

May 13 09:10 Italy Auctions BTPs/CCTeus

May 13 09:30 Germany Eur 3bn Feb 2025 Bund

May 13 14:30 Sweden Details bond auction on 20 May

May 14 09:30 UK Auctions 2% 2020 Conventional Gilt

NZD/USD Forecast 2015 May 11-15

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