Precious Metals Analysis Forecast, May 14, 2015 – Forecast – Gold, Silver & Platinum

Analysis and Recommendations (GOLD Forecast):

Gold is flat today as traders showed very little interest in the precious metals while focusing on base metals. Gold is trading at 1192.30 while Silver soared 122 points to 16.648. Platinum gained a bit also trade at 1134.40.

Gold held overnight gains to trade near its highest in a week on Wednesday, supported by weakness in the dollar and equities, but fund liquidation and uncertainty over the timing of a possible US rate hike kept the rally in check.

The Fed’s ability to delay its initial interest rate hike to head off economic shocks is now “more limited” than its ability to quickly tighten monetary policy in response to positive surprises, a top Fed policymaker said on Tuesday. Another top Fed official said he does not know when interest rates will rise, but he tempered that uncertainty by applauding an apparent consensus between markets and the US central bank that it will happen later this year. Gold has also been hit by outflows from bullion exchange-traded funds. SPDR Gold Trust, the top gold-backed exchange-traded fund, saw the sharpest one-day decline in holdings this year on Friday of nearly 11 tonnes.

Gold demand in India was sluggish despite the low gold prices and festive seasons. India is one of the largest buyers of physical gold. Weak local currencies mean that gold is expensive due to the strong US dollar. The US Dollar appreciated against the basket of currencies as uncertainty mounted across the Eurozone. Greece was on the verge of defaulting its debt against the IMF in the early hours of trading on Monday. In the US, the unemployment rate dropped to a seven-year low. This also suggests the strength of the US economy. This added to the dollar’s strength. However, the US dollar traded marginally lower at the close of trade yesterday.

ForexTraq provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review in forex trading. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information for Gold in our weekly reports.

Today’s economic releases actual vs. forecast:

Cur. Event Actual Forecast Previous
  NZD RBNZ Gov Wheeler Speaks
  JPY Current Account n.s.a. (Mar) 2.795T 2.060T 1.440T
  AUD Wage Price Index (QoQ) (Q1) 0.5% 0.6% 0.6%
  CNY Fixed Asset Investment (YoY) 12.0% 13.5% 13.5%
  CNY Industrial Production (YoY) 5.9% 6.0% 5.6%
  EUR German CPI (MoM) (Apr) 0.0% -0.1% -0.1%
  EUR German GDP (YoY) (Q1) 1.1% 1.2% 1.6%
  EUR German GDP (QoQ) (Q1) 0.3% 0.5% 0.7%
  CNY New Loans (Apr) 707.9B 903.0B 1,180.0B
  GBP Average Earnings Index +Bonus 1.9% 1.7% 1.7%
  GBP Claimant Count Change (Apr) -12.6K -20.0K -16.7K
  GBP Unemployment Rate (Mar) 5.5% 5.5% 5.6%
  EUR GDP (QoQ) (Q1) 0.5% 0.3%
  EUR Industrial Production (MoM) 0.2% 1.1%
  GBP BoE Gov Carney Speaks
  GBP BoE Inflation Report
  EUR Monetary Policy Meeting

 gold silver wed

Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring for GOLD in forex trading:

Thursday, May 14, 2015

Cur. Event Actual Forecast Previous
  NZD Business NZ PMI (Apr) 54.5
  NZD Core Retail Sales (QoQ) 1.5% 1.5%
  NZD Retail Sales (QoQ) (Q1) 1.5% 1.7%
  GBP RICS House Price Balance (Apr) 22% 21%
  CNY New Loans 1,210.0B 1,180.0B
  USD Core PPI (MoM) (Apr) 0.1% 0.2%
  USD Initial Jobless Claims 275K 265K
  USD PPI (MoM) (Apr) 0.2% 0.2%

Government Bond Auctions

Date Time Country

May 14 09:00 Ireland Eur 0.75bn 0.8% Mar 2022 IGBs

May 14 09:30 UK GBP 3.75bn 2% Jul 2020 Conventional Gilt

May 14 15:00 US Announces details of 10-year TIPS sale on 21 May

May 14 17:00 US USD 16bn 30-year bond

May 18 09:30 Germany Eur 1.5bn 12M (May 2016) Bubills

May 18 10:00 Belgium Auctions OLOs


GOLD analysis forecast


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