Analysis and Recommendations (GOLD Forecast):
Gold gave back $3.50 as traders booked profits after seeing gains over $25 on Wednesday as traders shifted views on interest rate increases in the US. Silver dipped 48 points to 17.173 and Platinum was flat at 1150.50.
Gold futures soared above $1200 per ounce amid a sharp surge in afternoon after the Eurozone GDP data provided good support to the Euro. Gold stayed supported yesterday, extending a recovery from lows near $1180 per ounce amid safe buying and supportive crude oil prices. The COMEX Gold futures are currently trading at $1203.30 per ounce, up 0.91%on the day. These are the highest levels in two weeks for the counter.
The Euro edged up against the US dollar and tested a fresh two month high above 1.1300after a recovery in economies of France and Italy helped boost Eurozone economic growth in the first three months of 2015 to its fastest pace in almost two years. The combined gross domestic product of the 19 countries that shared the euro was 0.4% higher in the first quarter than in the final three months of 2014, the European Union’s statistics agency said Wednesday. However, German economy, the Eurozone’s largest, slowed more sharply than expected, to record growth of 0.3% compared with 0.7% in the previous period. France and Italy registered growth rates of 0.6% and 0.3% respectively. The single currency is quoting around 1.1230 against the dollar after falling to a one week low near1.100 earlier in the week.
Gold traders would be eying a drop under $1190 per ounce in intraday moves today. Gold speculators and large futures trader positions witnessed a sharp drop last week as gold bullish bets declined to the lowest level since March, according to the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) data released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday. The non-commercial futures contracts of Comex gold futures, traded by large speculators and hedge funds, totaled a net position of 72,440 contracts in the data reported through May 5th. This was a weekly change of 28817 contracts from the previous week’s total of 101257 net contracts that was registered on April 28th. The results in the weekly net speculator positions was due to a decrease in the weekly bullish positions by 16824 contracts that combined with the weekly bearish positions that increased by 11993 contracts. Net speculative positions are now at the lowest level since March 24th when positions equaled 54281 contracts.
ForexTraq provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review in forex trading. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information for GOLD in our weekly reports.
Today’s economic releases actual vs. forecast:
|NZD||Business NZ PMI (Apr)||54.5|
|NZD||Core Retail Sales (QoQ)||2.9%||1.5%||1.9%|
|NZD||Retail Sales (QoQ) (Q1)||2.7%||1.5%||1.7%|
|GBP||RICS House Price Balance (Apr)||33%||22%||22%|
Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring for GOLD in forex trading:
Friday, May 15, 2015
|JPY||BoJ Governor Kuroda Speaks|
|CHF||PPI (MoM) (Apr)||-0.1%||0.2%|
|USD||NY Empire State Manufacturing||5.00||-1.19|
|CAD||Foreign Securities Purchases||7.23B||9.27B|
|CAD||Manufacturing Sales (MoM)||1.2%||-1.7%|
|USD||Industrial Production (MoM)||0.1%||-0.6%|
Government Bond Auctions
Date Time Country
May 18 09:30 Germany Eur 1.5bn 12M (May 2016) Bubills
May 18 10:00 Belgium Auctions OLOs
May 20 09:03 Sweden Holds bond auction
May 21 08:30 Spain Auctions Bonos
May 21 09:03 Sweden Holds bond exchange auction
May 21 09:10 France Auctions BTANs
May 21 09:30 UK Auctions 4.75% 2030 Conventional Gilt
May 21 10:10 France Auctions
May 21 15:30 Italy Announces details of CTZ/BTPei on 26 May
May 21 15:00 US Announces details of 2-year FRN on 27 May, plus 2/5/7 year
May 21 17:00 US Auctions 10-year TIPs
May 22 09:03 Sweden Holds bond exchange auction
May 22 10:00 Norway Details bond auction on 27 May
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