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Precious Metals Analysis Forecast, May 18, 2015 – Forecast – Gold, Silver & Platinum

Analysis and Recommendations (GOLD Forecast):

Gold gave up $11 in today’s session as traders continue to book profits after gold rallied over $25 on Thursday. Silver was down 0.90% matching gold’s decline to trade at 17.307 and Platinum fell just 0.78% to 1153.35. Gold traded near a three-month high on Friday and was on track for its biggest weekly gain in four months on receding expectations the Federal Reserve would hike U.S. interest rates soon.

The bullion market was getting comfort from Wednesday data that showed U.S. retail sales were flat in April, weaker than expected.  That added to second-quarter growth concerns already prompted by sluggish U.S. nonfarm payrolls data last week.  Data on Thursday that showed the number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits falling last week towards a 15-year low failed to alleviate concerns over the economy.

The dollar was trading close to four-month lows on Friday against a basket of major currencies; on speculation the U.S.central bank will not hike rates until later this year. Higher rates would boost demand for the greenback, but diminish the appeal of non-interest-paying bullion.

U.S. data due on Friday, including April industrial production and the University of Michigan’s preliminary May reading on consumer sentiment, should provide more cues. Investors, however, seemed uncertain about bullion’s rally and how long it would last.

Holdings in SPDR Gold Trust, the world’s largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, fell 0.61 percent to 723.91 tonnes on Thursday, a four-month low.

ForexTraq provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review in forex trading. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information for GOLD in our weekly reports.

Today’s economic releases actual vs. forecast:

Cur. Event Actual Forecast Previous
  JPY BoJ Governor Kuroda Speaks
  CHF PPI (MoM) (Apr) -2.1% -0.1% 0.2%
  USD NY Empire State Manufacturing   5.00 -1.19  
  USD Industrial Production (MoM)   0.1% -0.6%  
  USD Michigan Consumer   88.6 88.8  

Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring for Gold in forex trading:

Monday, May 18, 2015

Cur. Event Actual Forecast Previous
  AUD RBA Assist Gov Lowe Speaks
  JPY Industrial Production (MoM) -0.3%
  JPY Tertiary Industry Activity Index 0.3%
  CHF Retail Sales (YoY) (Mar) -2.7%

Government Bond Auctions

Date Time Country

May 18 09:30 Germany Eur 1.5bn 12M (May 2016) Bubills

May 18 10:00 Belgium Auctions OLOs

May 20 09:03 Sweden Holds bond auction

May 21 08:30 Spain Auctions Bonos

May 21 09:03 Sweden Holds bond exchange auction

May 21 09:10 France Auctions BTANs

May 21 09:30 UK Auctions 4.75% 2030 Conventional Gilt

May 21 10:10 France Auctions

May 21 15:30 Italy Announces details of CTZ/BTPei on 26 May

May 21 15:00 US Announces details of 2-year FRN on 27 May, plus 2/5/7 year

May 21 17:00 US Auctions 10-year TIPs

May 22 09:03 Sweden Holds bond exchange auction

May 22 10:00 Norway Details bond auction on 27 May

 

Precious analysis forecast

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