Analysis and Recommendations (GOLD And Silver Forecast for 19 May):
Gold continued to gain reaching 1230.20 well above its expected trading range, pulling Silver with it. Silver gained 160 points to trade at 17.723. Platinum reached 1170.50 gaining just over $1. Gold has rebounded almost 4 percent in May as more signs of sputtering growth challenged the Fed’s view and stoked speculation that borrowing costs will stay low for longer. The central bank’s benchmark rate has been near zero percent since 2008. Rising oil prices have also brought investors back to gold, on concern that higher energy costs will spur inflation.
Even while there have been some signs of weaker growth, an improving labor market still gives the Fed some room to raise rates for the first time in almost a decade. Claims for U.S. jobless benefits fell by 1,000 to 264,000 in the week ended May 9, pushing the monthly average to the lowest since April 2000, Labor Department data show. Gold dropped 29 percent in the previous two years as the dollar surged, inflation remained muted and the unemployment rate declined.
The U.S. economy is doing better than its global counterparts, and that will help the dollar to regain its appeal, according to Chad Morganlander, a Florham Park, New Jersey-based money manager at Stifel, Nicolaus & Co., which oversees about $170 billion. Gold reached this year’s low in March as the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index climbed to the highest since the data begins in 2004.
Economists cut their forecasts for U.S. economic growth in the second quarter and full year, and trimmed expectations for U.S. labour market gains, according to the Philadelphia Federal Reserve’s quarterly survey. Hedge funds and money managers increased net long positions in silver and gold in the week ended May 12, U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission data showed on Friday. Hedge fund Paulson & Co kept its stakes unchanged in most of its gold investments in the first quarter, when the precious metal’s price pared its gains, a filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission showed on Friday.
ForexTraq provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review in forex trading. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information for GOLD and SILVER in our weekly reports.
Today’s economic releases actual vs. forecast:
|AUD||RBA Assist Gov Lowe Speaks|
|JPY||Industrial Production (MoM)||-0.8%||-0.3%||-0.3%|
|JPY||Tertiary Industry Activity Index||-1.0%||-0.5%||0.4%|
|CHF||Retail Sales (YoY) (Mar)||-2.8%||-2.0%||-3.1%|
Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring for GOLD in forex trading:
Tuesday, May 19, 2015
|AUD||Monetary Policy Minutes|
|GBP||CPI (YoY) (Apr)|
|EUR||German ZEW Economic||49.0||53.3|
|EUR||CPI (YoY) (Apr)||0.0%||0.0%|
|USD||Building Permits (Apr)||1.065M||1.042M|
|CAD||BoC Gov Poloz Speaks|
Government Bond Auctions
Date Time Country
May 20 09:03 Sweden Holds bond auction
May 21 08:30 Spain Auctions Bonos
May 21 09:03 Sweden Holds bond exchange auction
May 21 09:10 France Auctions BTANs
May 21 09:30 UK Auctions 4.75% 2030 Conventional Gilt
May 21 10:10 France Auctions
May 21 15:30 Italy Announces details of CTZ/BTPei on 26 May
May 21 15:00 US Announces details of 2-year FRN on 27 May, plus 2/5/7 year
May 21 17:00 US Auctions 10-year TIPs
May 22 09:03 Sweden Holds bond exchange auction
May 22 10:00 Norway Details bond auction on 27 May
Gold And Silver analysis forecast
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