Precious Metals Fundamental Analysis, May 13, 2015 – Forecast – Gold, Silver & Platinum

Analysis and Recommendations :

Gold is flat today as market sentiment is positive and there is no drive for precious metals. Gold is trading at 1183.40 while Silver declined 51 points to 16.265 and Platinum gained $1.25 to 1128.55. A new survey by World Silver Survey, published by industry lobby group The Silver Institute and metals consultancy Thomson Reuters GFMS, says that global silver production is expected to fall in 2015 as lower prices take a toll, Art of Jewelry reports.

Silver mine production rose 5% in 2014 to reach 877.5 million ounces, while global physical demand for silver fell 4.1%. In 2015, however, silver output is expected to decline amid a dearth of new mines and as aging operations see their production fall.

In 2015, silver demand should tick higher as demand for coins and bars improves. Demand from the jewelry sector should also continue to improve, while industrial demand for silver will remain broadly flat. GFMS expects silver prices to average $16.50 an ounce in 2015, and $17.50 an ounce in 2016.


Gold held below $1,200 an ounce as investors weighed bets on when the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates and on speculation that the Greek government will deliver policies needed to escape a default.

San Francisco Fed President John Williams reiterated policy makers could lift borrowing costs at any meeting, after employment indicators showed signs of recovering from a harsh winter. The comments helped boost the dollar on Monday. Higher borrowing costs cut bullion’s allure as the metal generally offers returns only through price gains, sending investors to assets with better yield prospects.

ForexTraq provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review in forex trading. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information for GOLD, SILVER in our weekly reports.


Today’s economic releases actual vs. forecast:

Cur. Event Actual Forecast Previous
  AUD Home Loans (MoM) (Mar) 1.6% 1.0% 1.1%
  JPY 10-Year JGB Auction 0.434% 0.369%
  GBP Industrial Production (MoM) 0.5% 0.1% 0.1%
  GBP Manufacturing Production 0.4% 0.3% 0.5%
  GBP NIESR GDP Estimate 0.6%
  USD JOLTs Job Openings (Mar) 5.085M 5.133M


Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:

Wednesday, May 13, 2015

Cur.   Event Actual Forecast Previous
  NZD RBNZ Gov Wheeler Speaks
  JPY Adjusted Current Account 1.34T 0.60T
  AUD Wage Price Index (QoQ) (Q1) 0.6% 0.6%
  CNY Fixed Asset Investment (YoY) 13.5% 13.5%
  CNY Industrial Production (YoY) 6.0% 5.6%
  EUR German CPI (MoM) (Apr) -0.1% -0.1%
  EUR German GDP (QoQ) (Q1) 0.5% 0.7%
  GBP Claimant Count Change (Apr) -20.0K -20.7K
  GBP Unemployment Rate (Mar) 5.5% 5.6%
  EUR GDP (QoQ) (Q1) 0.5% 0.3%
  EUR Industrial Production (MoM) 0.2% 1.1%
  GBP BoE Inflation Report
  EUR ECB Monetary Policy Meeting
  USD Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Apr) 0.5% 0.4%
  USD Retail Sales (MoM) (Apr) 0.2% 0.9%
  USD Crude Oil Inventories -3.882M

Government Bond Auctions

Date Time Country

May 12 08:10 Dutch Eur 2-3bn 0.25% Jul 2025 DSL

May 12 09:15 Norway Eur 4bn 4.5% May 2019 bond

May 12 09:30 Germany Eur 1bn 0.1% Apr 2026 I/L Bund

May 12 17:00 US USD 24bn 3-year notes

May 13 09:10 Italy Eur 2.5-3bn 0.25% May 2018 & Eur 2-2.5bn 1.35% Apr 2022

BTPs, plus Eur 1-1.5bn 1.65% Mar 2032 & 3.25% Sep 2046

May 13 09:30 Germany Eur 3bn 0.5% Feb 2025 Bund

May 13 14:30 Sweden Details bond auction on 20 May

May 13 17:00 US USD 24bn 10-year notes

May 14 09:00 Ireland Eur 0.75bn 0.8% Mar 2022 IGBs

May 14 09:30 UK GBP 3.75bn 2% Jul 2020 Conventional Gilt

May 14 15:00 US Announces details of 10-year TIPS sale on 21 May

May 14 17:00 US USD 16bn 30-year bond

May 18 09:30 Germany Eur 1.5bn 12M (May 2016) Bubills

May 18 10:00 Belgium Auctions OLOs

May 20 09:03 Sweden Holds bond auction

May 21 08:30 Spain Auctions Bonos

May 21 09:03 Sweden Holds bond exchange auction

May 21 09:10 France Auctions BTANs

May 21 09:30 UK Auctions 4.75% 2030 Conventional Gilt

May 21 10:10 France Auctions

May 21 15:30 Italy Announces details of CTZ/BTPei on 26 May

May 21 15:00 US Announces details of 2-year FRN on 27 May, plus 2/5/7 year

May 21 17:00 US Auctions 10-year TIPs

May 22 09:03 Sweden Holds bond exchange auction

May 22 10:00 Norway Details bond auction on 27 May




Leave a Comment