USD/CAD Analysis Forecast For 21 May 2015

Analysis and Recommendations (USD/CAD Forecast):

The USD/CAD gained 34 points to trade at 1.2195 as the US dollar surged today on Federal Reserve comments. Looking at the North America open traders can expect some volatility today with US Housing Starts and Building Permits, to be released at 13:30, is the only data release of note. It will be interesting to note whether the recent weakness seen in US consumer confidence and Retail Sales has spread to the housing market. A miss here would give dollar bulls the chance to take profits, but after such a big move earlier in the day.  The US dollar has staged a strong rally against the Canadian dollar ahead of the FOMC minutes. These gains are however unlikely to convince leading currency analysts that we are witnessing a turn-around in fortunes for the USD.

Oil prices took a header today along with gold prices leaving the CAD a bit weak.

A paper published Monday by the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco said, potentially adding to arguments for raising interest rates sooner rather than later. The U.S. economy is probably not as weak as current estimates suggested. A chart shown in the paper suggested first-quarter growth may have been closer to 1.8%. That’s still below the economy’s potential but not dramatically so. A stronger economy suggests a lower hurdle for the Fed to raise interest rates that have been near zero since December 2008.

San Francisco Fed President John Williams, whose chief research economist co-authored Monday’s paper, has said he believes the economy will bounce back this quarter and may be strong enough for the Fed to begin raising interest rates even as soon as June.

ForexTraq provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review in forex trading. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information for USD/CAD in our weekly reports.

Today’s economic releases actual vs. forecast:

Cur. Event Actual Forecast Previous
  NZD PPI Input (QoQ) (Q1) -1.1% -0.7% -0.4%  
  AUD Monetary Policy Meeting        
  NZD Inflation Expectations (QoQ) 1.9%   1.8%  
  GBP CPI (MoM) (Apr) 0.2% 0.4% 0.2%  
  GBP CPI (YoY) (Apr) -0.1% 0.0% 0.0%  
  GBP PPI Input (MoM) (Apr) 0.4% 0.8% 0.4%
  EUR German ZEW Current Conditions 65.7 68.0 70.2  
  EUR German ZEW Economic 41.9 49.0 53.3  
  EUR Core CPI (YoY) (Apr) 0.6% 0.6% 0.6%  
  EUR CPI (YoY) (Apr) 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%  
  EUR CPI (MoM) (Apr) 0.2% 0.2% 1.1%  
  EUR Trade Balance (Mar) 23.4B 22.8B 20.3B  
  EUR ZEW Economic Sentiment 61.2 62.4 64.8

 USDCAD chart

Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring for USD/CAD in forex trading:

Wednesday, May 20, 2015

Cur. Event Actual Forecast Previous
  JPY GDP (QoQ) (Q1)   0.4% 0.4%  
  JPY GDP (YoY) (Q1)   1.5% 1.5%  
  AUD Westpac Consumer Sentiment     -3.2%  
  EUR German PPI (MoM) (Apr)   0.2% 0.1%  
  GBP BoE MPC Meeting Minutes        
  CAD Wholesale Sales (MoM) (Mar)   0.7% -0.4%  
  USD Crude Oil Inventories     -2.191M  
  USD FOMC Meeting Minutes      

Government Bond Auctions

Date Time Country

May 20 09:03 Sweden Holds bond auction

May 21 08:30 Spain Auctions Bonos

May 21 09:03 Sweden Holds bond exchange auction

May 21 09:10 France Auctions BTANs

May 21 09:30 UK Auctions 4.75% 2030 Conventional Gilt

May 21 10:10 France Auctions

May 21 15:30 Italy Announces details of CTZ/BTPei on 26 May

May 21 15:00 US Announces details of 2-year FRN on 27 May, plus 2/5/7 year

May 21 17:00 US Auctions 10-year TIPs

May 22 09:03 Sweden Holds bond exchange auction

May 22 10:00 Norway Details bond auction on 27 May


USD/CAD analysis forecast archieve

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