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USD/CAD Analysis Forecast, June 05, 2015 – Forecast

usdcad thursday bnsAnalysis and Recommendations (USD/CAD Forecast):

The USD/CAD is down 9 points and is trading at 1.2442 as the greenback took a tumble today as safe haven demands continued to ease as a deal seemed imminent with Greece. The US Dollar Index fell 54 points to 94.81 while oil and gold remained negative but stable.  Some currency watchers expect the Canadian dollar to tumble to well below 80 cents U.S., lending a helping hand to exporters but causing some issues for others.

Royal Bank of Canada projects the loonie will tumble to just above 76 cents by the third quarter, from its year-to-date average of 81 cents.

Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce forecasts a 79-cent currency by the end of this year, and Bank of Nova Scotia is close to that at about 79.5 cents.

Societe Generale projects it will be somewhere between 77 cents and just below 78 cents any day now.

“The crude export trajectory is crucial as, over the medium term, the Canadian dollar is 93 per cent correlated with its terms of trade, which, in turn, is highly correlated with the price of WTI – the CAD is very much a dog on a leash,” Kevin Hebner, chief foreign exchange strategist at JPMorgan Chase & Co., said in a new report.

ForexTraq provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information for USD/CAD in our weekly reports.

Today’s economic releases actual vs. forecast:

Cur.

 

Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

 

  JPY

 

BoJ Governor Kuroda Speaks  

 

 

 

 

 

  AUD

 

Retail Sales (MoM) (Apr)

0.0%

0.4%

0.2%

   

  AUD

 

Trade Balance (Apr)

-3.888B

-2.250B

-1.231B

   

  GBP

 

Halifax House Price Index

-0.1%

0.3%

1.6%

 

 

  GBP

 

Halifax House Price Index

8.6%

8.5%

8.5%

 

 

  GBP

 

BoE QE Total (Jun)

 

375B

375B

 

 

  GBP

 

Interest Rate Decision (Jun)

 

0.50%

0.50%

   

 USDCAD(60 minutes)20150604042838

Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:

Friday, June 05, 2015

Cur.

 

Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

 

  USD

 

Nonfarm Payrolls (May)

 

225K

223K

 

 

  USD

 

Unemployment Rate (May)

 

5.4%

5.4%

 

 

  CAD

 

Employment Change (May)

 

10.0K

-19.7K

   

Government Bond Auctions

Date Time Country

Jun 08 12:00 Norway Details bond auction on 10 Jun

Jun 08 17:30 Italy Announces details of BTP/CCTeu on 11 June

Jun 09 11:10 Austria Holds RAGB bond sale

Jun 09 11:30 UK Auctions 0.125% 2024 I/L Gilt

Jun 10 11:15 Norway Holds bond auction

Jun 10 11:30 Germany Eur 5bn Jun 2017 Schatz

Jun 10 16:30 Sweden Details bond auction on 17 June

Jun 11 11:30 Spain Auctions Bonos

Jun 11 11:10 Italy Auctions BTPs/CCTeus

Jun 11 11:10 Sweden Holds inflation-linked bond auction

Jun 11 11:30 UK Auctions 3.5% 2045 Conventional Gilt

Jun 11 17:00 US Announces details of 30-year TIPs sale on 18 Jun

 

USD/CAD analysis forecast

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