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USD/CAD Analysis Forecast – June 9, 2015 – Forecast

usd cad bns monthAnalysis and Recommendations (USD/CAD Forecast):

The USD/CAD gained 2 points to climb today to 1.2441 as the greenback remained strong and the CAD faced a decline in gold and oil prices last week. Also dismal Canadian data is weighing on the currency today. The Canadian dollar gained against most major peers after the country added six times as many jobs in May as forecast, bolstering Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz’s view that the economy will rebound from oil’s collapse.

The currency climbed as employment rose by 58,900 in May, Statistics Canada said Friday in Ottawa, compared with a median prediction in a Bloomberg News survey for an increase of 10,000 positions. The gains were bolstered as the U.S. also posted better-than-projected employment numbers, adding to signs of economic growth in Canada’s biggest trade partner.

Investors are keeping an eye on developments in the Greek bailout issue. On Sunday, French Finance Minister Michel Sapin said an agreement on Greece debt to keep the country in the eurozone would be impossible after the end of June, adding to pressure on Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras, who took a defiant stance in a speech in his country’s parliament on Friday.

The US currency was on focus last Friday due to the Non-Farm Payrolls report which is always regarded as the most important report of the FX universe and set the tone for the weeks to come. And this time it was all in favor of the buck which gained across the board on the back of the bullish printing.

The US jobs report revealed that during the previous month the US economy added 280k jobs beating analysts’ expectations while the average hourly earnings also printed in a better than expected fashion at a 0.3% growth rate.

ForexTraq provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information for USD/CAD in our weekly reports.

Today’s economic releases actual vs. forecast:

Cur.

 

Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

 

 

 

 

Australia – Queen’s Birthday

  JPY

 

Adjusted Current Account

1.27T

1.45T

2.07T

 

 

  JPY

 

Current Account (Apr)

1.326T

1.696T

2.795T

 

 

  JPY

 

GDP (YoY) (Q1)

3.9%

2.7%

2.4%

 

 

  JPY

 

GDP (QoQ) (Q1)

1.0%

0.7%

0.6%

 

 

  CNY

 

Exports (YoY) (May)

-2.5%

-5.0%

-6.4%

 

 

  CNY

 

Imports (YoY) (May)

-17.6%

-10.7%

-16.2%

 

 

  CNY

 

Trade Balance (May)

59.49B

44.95B

34.13B

 

 

  EUR

 

German Industrial Production

0.9%

0.5%

-0.4%

   

  EUR

 

German Trade Balance (Apr)

22.3B

19.4B

19.4B

   

usdcad mon

Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:

Tuesday, June 09, 2015

Cur.

 

Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

 

  GBP

 

BRC Retail Sales Monitor (YoY)

 

 

-2.4%

 

 

  AUD

 

Home Loans (MoM) (Apr)

 

-2.0%

1.6%

 

 

  AUD

 

NAB Business Confidence (May)

 

 

3

 

 

  CNY

 

CPI (MoM) (May)

 

 

-0.2%

 

 

  CNY

 

CPI (YoY) (May)

 

1.3%

1.5%

 

 

  CNY

 

PPI (YoY) (May)

 

-4.5%

-4.6%

 

 

  CHF

 

Unemployment Rate n.s.a.

 

 

3.3%

 

 

  CHF

 

CPI (MoM) (May)

 

0.1%

-0.2%

 

 

  GBP

 

Trade Balance (Apr)

 

-9.85B

-10.12B

 

 

  GBP

 

Trade Balance Non-EU (Apr)

 

-3.00B

-3.16B

 

 

  EUR

 

GDP (YoY) (Q1)

 

1.0%

1.0%

 

 

  EUR

 

GDP (QoQ) (Q1)

 

0.4%

0.4%

 

 

  USD

 

JOLTs Job Openings (Apr)

 

 

4.994M

   

Government Bond Auctions

Date Time Country

Jun 09 11:10 Austria Holds RAGB bond sale

Jun 09 11:30 UK Auctions 0.125% 2024 I/L Gilt

Jun 10 11:15 Norway Holds bond auction

Jun 10 11:30 Germany Eur 5bn Jun 2017 Schatz

Jun 10 16:30 Sweden Details bond auction on 17 June

Jun 11 11:30 Spain Auctions Bonos

Jun 11 11:10 Italy Auctions BTPs/CCTeus

Jun 11 11:10 Sweden Holds inflation-linked bond auction

Jun 11 11:30 UK Auctions 3.5% 2045 Conventional Gilt

Jun 11 17:00 US Announces details of 30-year TIPs sale on 18 Jun

 

USD/CAD analysis forecast

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