USD/CAD Analysis Forecast, May 14, 2015 – Forecast

Analysis and Recommendations (USD/CAD Forecast):

The USD/CAD tanked falling 44 points to trade at 1.1976 as the greenback turned back into the red today.  The dollar was on the defensive ahead of US retail sales data due later in the day.

Financial markets are closely watching US data to gauge the strength of the economy and how that would impact the Federal Reserve’s interest rate policy. Strong data could prompt an early rate hike, boosting the greenback and hurting non-interest-yielding gold.

Fed officials had provided no clarity on Tuesday on when the US central bank would make such a move. The Fed’s ability to delay its initial interest rate hike to head off economic shocks is now “more limited’’ than its ability to quickly tighten monetary policy in response to positive surprises, a top Fed policymaker said.

Another top Fed official said he does not know when interest rates will rise, but he tempered that uncertainty by applauding an apparent consensus between markets and the US central bank that it will happen later this year.

The Canadian jobs report is often overlooked thanks to the bigger headlines on the U.S. jobs report that precedes it. The Canadian dollar strengthened marginally in response to the combination of reports and today is following through on this strength.

Higher crude prices helped the Canadian dollar strengthen against a broadly weaker U.S. dollar on Tuesday, but trading stayed within its recent band due to a dearth of domestic economic data to inspire moves. The weaker greenback, ongoing conflict in Yemen, and a forecast by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries for marginally higher growth in 2015 in world oil demand all helped pushed the price of oil, a key Canadian export, higher.

ForexTraq provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review in forex trading. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information for USD/CAD in our weekly reports.

Today’s economic releases actual vs. forecast:

Cur. Event Actual Forecast Previous
  NZD RBNZ Gov Wheeler Speaks
  JPY Current Account n.s.a. (Mar) 2.795T 2.060T 1.440T
  AUD Wage Price Index (QoQ) (Q1) 0.5% 0.6% 0.6%
  CNY Fixed Asset Investment (YoY) 12.0% 13.5% 13.5%
  CNY Industrial Production (YoY) 5.9% 6.0% 5.6%
  EUR German CPI (MoM) (Apr) 0.0% -0.1% -0.1%
  EUR German GDP (YoY) (Q1) 1.1% 1.2% 1.6%
  EUR German GDP (QoQ) (Q1) 0.3% 0.5% 0.7%
  CNY New Loans (Apr) 707.9B 903.0B 1,180.0B
  GBP Average Earnings Index +Bonus 1.9% 1.7% 1.7%
  GBP Claimant Count Change (Apr) -12.6K -20.0K -16.7K
  GBP Unemployment Rate (Mar) 5.5% 5.5% 5.6%
  EUR GDP (QoQ) (Q1) 0.5% 0.3%
  EUR Industrial Production (MoM) 0.2% 1.1%
  GBP BoE Gov Carney Speaks
  GBP BoE Inflation Report
  EUR Monetary Policy Meeting

 USDCAD chart

Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring for USD/CAD in forex trading:

Thursday, May 14, 2015

Cur. Event Actual Forecast Previous
  NZD Business NZ PMI (Apr) 54.5
  NZD Core Retail Sales (QoQ) 1.5% 1.5%
  NZD Retail Sales (QoQ) (Q1) 1.5% 1.7%
  GBP RICS House Price Balance (Apr) 22% 21%
  CNY New Loans 1,210.0B 1,180.0B
  USD Core PPI (MoM) (Apr) 0.1% 0.2%
  USD Initial Jobless Claims 275K 265K
  USD PPI (MoM) (Apr) 0.2% 0.2%

Government Bond Auctions

Date Time Country

May 14 09:00 Ireland Eur 0.75bn 0.8% Mar 2022 IGBs

May 14 09:30 UK GBP 3.75bn 2% Jul 2020 Conventional Gilt

May 14 15:00 US Announces details of 10-year TIPS sale on 21 May

May 14 17:00 US USD 16bn 30-year bond

May 18 09:30 Germany Eur 1.5bn 12M (May 2016) Bubills

May 18 10:00 Belgium Auctions OLOs


USD/CAD analysis forecast


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