USD/CAD Analysis Forecast, May 18, 2015 – Forecast

Analysis and Recommendations (USD/CAD Forecast):

The USD/CAD recovered 40 points to trade at 1.2027 as the greenback turned stronger.

“There is no denying the performance of the U.S. economy is falling well short of expectations” and is pushing back bets for when the Federal Reserve will raise rates, which is weighing on the dollar, said Lee Hardman, an economist at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ.

BNP Paribas strategists also said the dollar weakness was likely to continue in the near term but added they broadly expect the buck to recover as the Fed gets closer to raising rates.

General weakness in the US dollar index, as recent economic data out of the country has been disappointing, was also supportive.

Though, disappointing Canadian housing data limited the upside. Statistics Canada said the New Housing Price Index was unchanged in March, slightly below expectations of a 0.1 per cent jump.

The currency gained on most of its major peers with North American benchmark prices for crude oil, Canada’s largest export, holding above $60 per barrel for the third straight day. Crude’s collapse to near $40 per barrel prompted the central bank to cut interest rates in January — a move it called “insurance” — and traders to bet on a second cut. Those bets have come off as oil rebounded and data last week showed job losses were concentrated in part-time work, while full-time employment rose.

ForexTraq provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review in forex trading. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information for USD/CAD in our weekly reports.

USD/CAD technical analysis chart

Today’s economic releases actual vs. forecast:

Cur. Event Actual Forecast Previous
  JPY BoJ Governor Kuroda Speaks
  CHF PPI (MoM) (Apr) -2.1% -0.1% 0.2%
  USD NY Empire State Manufacturing   5.00 -1.19  
  USD Industrial Production (MoM)   0.1% -0.6%  
  USD Michigan Consumer   88.6 88.8  

Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring for USD/CAD in forex trading:

Monday, May 18, 2015

Cur. Event Actual Forecast Previous
  AUD RBA Assist Gov Lowe Speaks
  JPY Industrial Production (MoM) -0.3%
  JPY Tertiary Industry Activity Index 0.3%
  CHF Retail Sales (YoY) (Mar) -2.7%

Government Bond Auctions

Date Time Country

May 18 09:30 Germany Eur 1.5bn 12M (May 2016) Bubills

May 18 10:00 Belgium Auctions OLOs

May 20 09:03 Sweden Holds bond auction

May 21 08:30 Spain Auctions Bonos

May 21 09:03 Sweden Holds bond exchange auction

May 21 09:10 France Auctions BTANs

May 21 09:30 UK Auctions 4.75% 2030 Conventional Gilt

May 21 10:10 France Auctions

May 21 15:30 Italy Announces details of CTZ/BTPei on 26 May

May 21 15:00 US Announces details of 2-year FRN on 27 May, plus 2/5/7 year

May 21 17:00 US Auctions 10-year TIPs

May 22 09:03 Sweden Holds bond exchange auction

May 22 10:00 Norway Details bond auction on 27 May


USD/CAD technical analysis forecast


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