Analysis and Recommendations (USD/CAD Forecast):
The USD/CAD recovered 40 points to trade at 1.2027 as the greenback turned stronger.
“There is no denying the performance of the U.S. economy is falling well short of expectations” and is pushing back bets for when the Federal Reserve will raise rates, which is weighing on the dollar, said Lee Hardman, an economist at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ.
BNP Paribas strategists also said the dollar weakness was likely to continue in the near term but added they broadly expect the buck to recover as the Fed gets closer to raising rates.
General weakness in the US dollar index, as recent economic data out of the country has been disappointing, was also supportive.
Though, disappointing Canadian housing data limited the upside. Statistics Canada said the New Housing Price Index was unchanged in March, slightly below expectations of a 0.1 per cent jump.
The currency gained on most of its major peers with North American benchmark prices for crude oil, Canada’s largest export, holding above $60 per barrel for the third straight day. Crude’s collapse to near $40 per barrel prompted the central bank to cut interest rates in January — a move it called “insurance” — and traders to bet on a second cut. Those bets have come off as oil rebounded and data last week showed job losses were concentrated in part-time work, while full-time employment rose.
ForexTraq provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review in forex trading. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information for USD/CAD in our weekly reports.
Today’s economic releases actual vs. forecast:
|JPY||BoJ Governor Kuroda Speaks|
|CHF||PPI (MoM) (Apr)||-2.1%||-0.1%||0.2%|
|USD||NY Empire State Manufacturing||5.00||-1.19|
|USD||Industrial Production (MoM)||0.1%||-0.6%|
Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring for USD/CAD in forex trading:
Monday, May 18, 2015
|AUD||RBA Assist Gov Lowe Speaks|
|JPY||Industrial Production (MoM)||-0.3%|
|JPY||Tertiary Industry Activity Index||0.3%|
|CHF||Retail Sales (YoY) (Mar)||-2.7%|
Government Bond Auctions
Date Time Country
May 18 09:30 Germany Eur 1.5bn 12M (May 2016) Bubills
May 18 10:00 Belgium Auctions OLOs
May 20 09:03 Sweden Holds bond auction
May 21 08:30 Spain Auctions Bonos
May 21 09:03 Sweden Holds bond exchange auction
May 21 09:10 France Auctions BTANs
May 21 09:30 UK Auctions 4.75% 2030 Conventional Gilt
May 21 10:10 France Auctions
May 21 15:30 Italy Announces details of CTZ/BTPei on 26 May
May 21 15:00 US Announces details of 2-year FRN on 27 May, plus 2/5/7 year
May 21 17:00 US Auctions 10-year TIPs
May 22 09:03 Sweden Holds bond exchange auction
May 22 10:00 Norway Details bond auction on 27 May
USD/CAD technical analysis forecast
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