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USD/CAD Analysis Forecast, May 22, 2015 – Forecast

usdcad thursday bnsAnalysis and Recommendations (USD/CAD Forecast):

The USD/CAD dipped a few points as the dollar withdrew giving up 5 points 1.2203 as gold and oil prices weighed on the Canadian dollar.  The latest minutes from the Fed’s April 28-29 are seen as the major economic event of the day, with traders looking for clues as to when the U.S. central bank might announced its first rate increase since the global financial crisis.

Low interest rates as well as the Fed’s previous program of quantitative easing have provided liquidity that has helped sustain market strength since the recession. After its April meeting, the Fed downgraded its view of the American economy, leaving investors to conclude that no interest rate hike would be coming soon.

On the economic beat, Statistics Canada reported Wednesday that wholesale sales rose 0.8 percent to 53.9 billion Canadian dollars in March after two consecutive monthly declines. Higher sales were recorded in five of seven sub-sectors, accounting for 66 percent of total wholesale sales.

The Canadian dollar started off the week reversing much of its recent gains, as the recent rally in crude oil prices has apparently reached its end. As a major oil producer, Canada’s currency and the price of crude are closely correlated. USD/CAD has shot up from 1.2020 when markets, to its current level of 1.22. In spite the recent batch of disappointing US data, which put pressure on the rate last week, a combination of investor risk aversion and fundamental factors impacting the price of crude oil have resulted in the current reversal.

ForexTraq provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information for USD/CAD in our weekly reports.

Today’s economic releases actual vs. forecast:

Cur.

 

Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

 

  CNY

 

HSBC Manufacturing PMI

49.1

49.3

48.9

 

 

  EUR

 

German Manufacturing PMI

51.4

52.3

52.1

 

 

  EUR

 

German Services PMI (May)  

52.9

53.9

54.0

 

 

  EUR

 

Manufacturing PMI (May)  

52.3

52.0

52.0

 

 

  EUR

 

Markit Composite PMI (May)  

53.4

53.8

53.9

 

 

  EUR

 

Services PMI (May)  

53.3

53.9

54.1

 

 

  GBP

 

Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Apr)

1.2%

0.3%

0.2%

 

 

  GBP

 

Core Retail Sales (YoY) (Apr)

4.7%

3.7%

4.8%

   

  GBP

 

Retail Sales (MoM) (Apr)

1.2%

0.4%

-0.7%

   

  GBP

 

Retail Sales (YoY) (Apr)

4.7%

3.8%

4.0%

   

  GBP

 

CBI Industrial Trends Orders

-5

3

1

 

 

  EUR

 

ECB Monetary Policy Meeting  

 

 

 

   

 USDCAD(60 minutes)20150521064505

Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:

Friday, May 22, 2015

Cur.

 

Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

 

  EUR

 

German GDP (QoQ) (Q1)

 

0.3%

0.3%

 

 

  JPY

 

BoJ Press Conference  

 

 

 

 

 

  EUR

 

German Ifo Business Climate Index (May)

 

108.3

108.6

 

 

  EUR

 

ECB President Draghi Speaks  

 

 

 

 

 

  GBP

 

BoE Gov Carney Speaks  

 

 

 

 

 

  USD

 

Core CPI (MoM) (Apr)

 

0.2%

0.2%

 

 

  CAD

 

Core CPI (MoM) (Apr)

 

0.2%

0.6%

 

 

  CAD

 

Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Mar)

 

0.4%

2.0%

 

 

  GBP

 

BoE Gov Carney Speaks  

 

 

 

 

 

  EUR

 

ECB President Draghi Speaks  

 

 

 

 

 

  USD

 

Fed Chair Yellen Speaks  

 

 

 

   

Government Bond Auctions

Date Time Country

May 21 08:30 Spain Auctions Bonos

May 21 09:03 Sweden Holds bond exchange auction

May 21 09:10 France Auctions BTANs

May 21 09:30 UK Auctions 4.75% 2030 Conventional Gilt

May 21 10:10 France Auctions

May 21 15:30 Italy Announces details of CTZ/BTPei on 26 May

May 21 15:00 US Announces details of 2-year FRN on 27 May, plus 2/5/7 year

May 21 17:00 US Auctions 10-year TIPs

May 22 09:03 Sweden Holds bond exchange auction

May 22 10:00 Norway Details bond auction on 27 May

 

USD/CAD analysis forecast

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