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USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis, May 11, 2015 – Forecast

usdcad friday bnsAnalysis and Recommendations:

The USD/CAD dipped 17 points as the dollar rallied ahead of the Nonfarm payroll report but stronger gold prices and oil prices remained in favor of the CAD. Yesterday’s surprise print of a much stronger building permits report showed a significant increase in housing in Canada helping to support the currency. The loonie is expected to weaken further, hitting C$1.25 in three months and C$1.27 in six months, trading not far from there at C$1.26 in 12 months.

The Canadian dollar’s recent rally is nearly over, with forecasters expecting higher interest rates south of the border to drive resurgence in the greenback and take the loonie back toward its lows of the year, a Reuter’s poll found. The Canadian dollar which recently has been highly sensitive to the price of oil, a major Canadian export – lost 20 percent from its peak last July to hit a six-year low in March.

The loonie has had a lot going for it lately, including a rally in oil prices, a softer U.S. dollar and a brighter outlook from the Bank of Canada.

“The outlook on oil is likely to prove less supportive while the probability of better U.S. data should increase after a long series of negative surprises,” Societe Generale’s Sebastian Galy and Stéphanie Aymes said in their report.

ForexTraq provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Today’s economic releases actual vs. forecast:

Cur.

 

Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

 

  JPY

 

Monetary Policy Meeting

 

 

 

 

 

  AUD

 

RBA Monetary Statement  

 

 

 

 

 

  CNY

 

Exports (YoY) (Apr)

-6.4%

2.4%

-15.0%

 

 

  CNY

 

Imports (YoY) (Apr)

-16.2%

-12.0%

-12.7%

 

 

  CNY

 

Trade Balance (Apr)

34.13B

39.45B

3.08B

 

 

  EUR

 

German Industrial Production

-0.5%

0.4%

0.2%

 

 

  EUR

 

German Trade Balance (Mar)

19.3B

20.0B

20.0B

   

  GBP

 

Halifax House Price Index (YoY)

8.5%

7.8%

8.1%

 

 

  GBP

 

Halifax House Price Index

1.6%

0.4%

0.6%

   

  GBP

 

Trade Balance (Mar)

 

-9.80B

-10.34B

 

 

  GBP

 

Trade Balance Non-EU (Mar)

 

-2.95B

-3.24B

   

 USDCAD(60 minutes)20150508103446

Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:

Monday, May 11, 2015

Cur.

 

Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

 

 

 

 

Russia – Victory Day

  AUD

 

NAB Business Confidence (Apr)

 

 

3

 

 

  GBP

 

BoE QE Total (May)

 

 

375B

 

 

  GBP

 

Interest Rate Decision (May)

 

0.50%

0.50%

   

Government Bond Auctions

Date Time Country

May 12 09:15 Norway Holds bond auction

May 13 09:10 Italy Auctions BTPs/CCTeus

May 13 09:30 Germany Eur 3bn Feb 2025 Bund

May 13 14:30 Sweden Details bond auction on 20 May

May 14 09:30 UK Auctions 2% 2020 Conventional Gilt

 

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