USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis, May 13, 2015 – Forecast

Analysis and Recommendations (USD/CAD Forecast):

The USD/CAD tumbled 4 points as the greenback reversed course after the IMF received its payment from Greece moving down the stress levels a bit. The CAD is trading at 1.2056. Speculators are scrambling to cover their bets against the Canadian dollar and a host of other currencies. It’s really a wait-and-see move that’s linked to the U.S. dollar, however.

According to the latest numbers from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission, currency speculators cut their net short positions against the loonie by about half, to just $835-million (U.S.).

They also trimmed their bets against the Australian dollar, the British pound and the euro in what was largely a short-covering move.

The weekend decision by the People’s Bank of China to reduce its benchmark rate a quarter point to 5.10 per cent was the third such cut in the last six months in an attempt to stimulate a slowing economy in the Asian powerhouse. Growth in China, a major consumer of oil and metals, tends to benefit the commodities-linked currency.

ForexTraq provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review in forex trading. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information for USD/CAD in our weekly reports.

USDCAD chart

Today’s economic releases actual vs. forecast:

Cur. Event Actual Forecast Previous
  AUD Home Loans (MoM) (Mar) 1.6% 1.0% 1.1%
  JPY 10-Year JGB Auction 0.434% 0.369%
  GBP Industrial Production (MoM) 0.5% 0.1% 0.1%
  GBP Manufacturing Production 0.4% 0.3% 0.5%
  GBP NIESR GDP Estimate 0.6%
  USD JOLTs Job Openings (Mar) 5.085M 5.133M


Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring in forex trading:

Wednesday, May 13, 2015

Cur.   Event Actual Forecast Previous
  NZD RBNZ Gov Wheeler Speaks
  JPY Adjusted Current Account 1.34T 0.60T
  AUD Wage Price Index (QoQ) (Q1) 0.6% 0.6%
  CNY Fixed Asset Investment (YoY) 13.5% 13.5%
  CNY Industrial Production (YoY) 6.0% 5.6%
  EUR German CPI (MoM) (Apr) -0.1% -0.1%
  EUR German GDP (QoQ) (Q1) 0.5% 0.7%
  GBP Claimant Count Change (Apr) -20.0K -20.7K
  GBP Unemployment Rate (Mar) 5.5% 5.6%
  EUR GDP (QoQ) (Q1) 0.5% 0.3%
  EUR Industrial Production (MoM) 0.2% 1.1%
  GBP BoE Inflation Report
  EUR ECB Monetary Policy Meeting
  USD Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Apr) 0.5% 0.4%
  USD Retail Sales (MoM) (Apr) 0.2% 0.9%
  USD Crude Oil Inventories -3.882M

Government Bond Auctions

Date Time Country

May 12 08:10 Dutch Eur 2-3bn 0.25% Jul 2025 DSL

May 12 09:15 Norway Eur 4bn 4.5% May 2019 bond

May 12 09:30 Germany Eur 1bn 0.1% Apr 2026 I/L Bund

May 12 17:00 US USD 24bn 3-year notes

May 13 09:10 Italy Eur 2.5-3bn 0.25% May 2018 & Eur 2-2.5bn 1.35% Apr 2022

BTPs, plus Eur 1-1.5bn 1.65% Mar 2032 & 3.25% Sep 2046

May 13 09:30 Germany Eur 3bn 0.5% Feb 2025 Bund

May 13 14:30 Sweden Details bond auction on 20 May

May 13 17:00 US USD 24bn 10-year notes

May 14 09:00 Ireland Eur 0.75bn 0.8% Mar 2022 IGBs

May 14 09:30 UK GBP 3.75bn 2% Jul 2020 Conventional Gilt

May 14 15:00 US Announces details of 10-year TIPS sale on 21 May

May 14 17:00 US USD 16bn 30-year bond

May 18 09:30 Germany Eur 1.5bn 12M (May 2016) Bubills

May 18 10:00 Belgium Auctions OLOs

USD/CAD (USDCAD) forecast 2015


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