USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis May 5, 2015 – Forecast

usdcad monday bnsAnalysis and Recommendations:

The USD/CAD dipped 29 points to trade at 1.2132 after oil prices rallied and gold found its legs. The US dollar gained today but seemed to have no results here. The dollar added to tenuous gains on Monday after staging a modest comeback from a two-week decline on Friday, as data suggested that the U.S. economy might be stabilizing after a recent soft patch. The dollar had slid around 5 percent against a basket of major currencies in the second half of April. Weaker-than-expected data had cast doubt on whether the U.S. Federal Reserve would raise interest rates in the coming months.

Stronger oil prices have also been boosting the loonie. West Texas Intermediate, the key North American contract, was closing in on $60 a barrel on Thursday, a four-month high.

In the past three weeks, oil has been driven higher by prospects of supply disruptions as Saudi Arabia clashes with Houthi rebels in Yemen. Today the Saudi Press Agency reported an attack on Saudi Arabia’s southern border, adding the rebels were repelled by gunfire. 

Currency watchers expect the Canadian dollar to perk up even more after its recent bounce, possibly to around the 85-cent mark. But that’s likely to be short-lived, they say.

Bank of Nova Scotia, for example, forecasts in its most recent outlook that the loonie will rise to just shy of 85 cents (U.S.) this quarter before slipping back and ending the year at 79 cents.

CIBC World Markets, in turn, predicts an 80-cent loonie by the end of this quarter, and, like Scotiabank, 79 cents as the year closes out. The loonie had been driven down by the oil shock and a dovish Bank of Canada.

ForexTraq provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Today’s economic releases actual vs. forecast:











United Kingdom – Early May Bank Holiday



HSBC Manufacturing PMI (Apr)








German Manufacturing PMI





 USDCAD(15 minutes)20150504143311

Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:

Tuesday, May 5, 2015










Interest Rate Decision (May)








Construction PMI (Apr)








ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI





Government Bond Auctions

Date Time Country

May 05 11:15 Austria Holds RAGB bond sale

May 06 11:03 Sweden Holds bond auction

May 06 11:30 Germany Eur 5bn Jun 2017 Schatz

May 07 10:30 Spain Auctions Bonos

May 07 11:10 France Auctions OATs

May 07 11:10 Sweden Holds inflation-linked bond auction

May 08 12:00 Norway Details bond auction on 12 May

May 08 17:30 Italy Announces details of BTP/CCTeu on 13 Ma



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