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USD/CAD Weekly Analysis Forecast – June 15-19, 2015 – Forecast

usdcad weekly bnsWeekly Analysis and Recommendation:  

The USD/CAD ended at 1.2309 its midpoint range as the US dollar bounced up and down all week. The declines in oil and gold weighed on the CAD. Comments from Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz during yesterday’s North American session could weigh down the CAD moving forward. The Canadian central bank governor warned investors that recent local trade data has been ‘disappointing’ and confirmed that his Bank’s decision to pre-emptively trim its key lending rate was driven by the drop in global oil prices.

The dollar index last traded half a percent higher at 95.482, recovering from Wednesday’s near one-month low of 94.322. Dollar bulls took some heart from data on Thursday showing U.S. retail sales rose sharply in May.

If momentum is sustained, the Federal Reserve might begin to hike rates later in the year, a scenario still favoured by many economists. Yet the dollar’s reaction was limited, partly due to a fall in U.S. Treasury yields and caution before the June 16-17 Federal Open Market Committee meeting.

ForexTraq provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weekly reports and we provide daily updates and outlooks.

USDCAD(15 minutes)20150613070910

Major Economic Events for the week that you should be monitoring

 

Cur.

 

Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

 

Monday, June 15, 2015

 

  RUB

 

Interest Rate Decision (Jun)

 

11.50%

12.50%

 

 

Tuesday, June 16, 2015

 

  GBP

 

CPI (YoY) (May)

 

0.1%

-0.1%

 

 

 

  EUR

 

German ZEW Economic

 

37.1

41.9

 

 

 

  USD

 

Building Permits (May)

 

1.100M

1.140M

 

 

Wednesday, June 17, 2015

 

  GBP

 

Claimant Count Change (May)

 

-12.5K

-12.6K

 

 

 

  EUR

 

CPI (YoY) (May)

 

0.3%

0.3%

 

 

 

  USD

 

FOMC Statement  

 

 

 

 

 

 

  USD

 

Fed Interest Rate Decision

 

0.25%

0.25%

 

 

 

  USD

 

Fed Chair Yellen Speaks  

 

 

 

 

 

Thursday, June 18, 2015

 

  NZD

 

GDP (QoQ) (Q1)

 

 

0.8%

 

 

 

  GBP

 

Retail Sales (MoM) (May)

 

0.2%

1.2%

 

 

 

  USD

 

Core CPI (MoM) (May)

 

0.2%

0.3%

 

 

 

  USD

 

Philadelphia Fed

 

8.0

6.7

 

 

Friday, June 19, 2015

 

  CAD

 

Core CPI (MoM) (May)

 

0.3%

0.1%

 

 

 

  CAD

 

Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Apr)

 

0.3%

0.5%

   

Upcoming Government Bond Auctions

Date Time Country 

Jun 15 00:00 UK New 30 year I/L syndicated Gilt auction

Jun 17 11:03 Sweden Holds bond auction

Jun 17 11:30 Germany Eur 3bn Feb 2025 Bund

Jun 18 10:30 Spain Auctions Bonos/Obligations

Jun 18 11:10 France Auctions BTANs

Jun 18 12:10 France Auctions OATi

Jun 18 17:00 US Details 2-year FRNs

Jun 18 17:00 US Announces details of 2/5/7 year notes

Jun 18 18:00 US Auctions 30-year TIPs sale on 24 Jun

USD/CAD analysis forecast

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