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USD/CAD Weekly Analysis Forecast, May 18-22, 2015 – Forecast

Weekly Analysis and Recommendation (USD/CAD Analysis Forecast):

The USD/CAD ended the week at 120.13 bouncing up and down this week but making much headway. The surge in oil and gold prices has helped support the currency.  Central bank officials have not said much in response to the dollar’s recovery. In April’s monetary policy report, the Bank of Canada referred to the Canadian dollar’s weakness and assumed for its forecasts that the currency would be at its then-level of 79 U.S. cents through a two-year forecast horizon. Later that month, Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz reiterated the Bank’s earlier stance that a weaker Canadian dollar would underpin growth in exports.

The Bank is not alone in paying little heed to Canadian dollar’s recovery, at least publicly, said Doug Porter, chief economist at BMO Capital Markets.

Bank of America, one of the U.S.’s biggest banks, says the Bank of Canada may have to cut its key lending rate again later this year. Bank of America says Canada’s economy will underperform the U.S. this year, hampered by low oil prices and worries over manufacturing competitiveness.

The negative impact that cheap oil has had will be intense but short-lived, as Canada’s economy is set to rebound through the spring and summer, the head of Canada’s central bank says.

In a speech in Washington on Friday, Stephen Poloz said the impact of lower oil prices hit the economy hard in the first quarter of the year. But over time, that impact is expected to soften and may lead to some benefits down the line in the form of a stronger U.S. economy.

ForexTraq provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review in forex trading. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information for USD/CAD in our weekly reports and we provide daily updates and outlooks.

usdcad chart

Major Economic Events for the week that you should be monitoring for USD/CAD in forex trading

Cur. Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

Monday, May 18, 2015

Tuesday, May 19, 2015

  AUD Monetary Meeting Minutes

 

  GBP CPI (YoY)

 

  EUR German ZEW Economic Sentiment

 

49.0

53.3

  EUR CPI (YoY)

 

0.0%

0.0%

  USD Building Permits (Apr)

 

1.065M

1.042M

  CAD BoC Gov Poloz Speaks

 

Wednesday, May 20, 2015

  GBP BoE MPC Meeting Minutes

 

  USD FOMC Meeting Minutes

 

Thursday, May 21, 2015

  CNY HSBC Manufacturing

 

49.4

48.9

  EUR German Manufacturing

 

52.3

52.1

  GBP Retail Sales

 

0.4%

-0.5%

  USD Existing Home Sales

 

5.24M

5.19M

  USD Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing

 

8.2

7.5

Friday, May 22, 2015

  EUR German GDP

 

0.3%

0.3%

  EUR German Manufacturing

 

52.1

  EUR German Ifo Business

 

108.3

108.6

  USD Core CPI

 

0.2%

0.2%

Government Bond Auctions

Date Time Country

May 18 09:30 Germany Eur 1.5bn 12M (May 2016) Bubills

May 18 10:00 Belgium Auctions OLOs

May 20 09:03 Sweden Holds bond auction

May 21 08:30 Spain Auctions Bonos

May 21 09:03 Sweden Holds bond exchange auction

May 21 09:10 France Auctions BTANs

May 21 09:30 UK Auctions 4.75% 2030 Conventional Gilt

May 21 10:10 France Auctions

May 21 15:30 Italy Announces details of CTZ/BTPei on 26 May

May 21 15:00 US Announces details of 2-year FRN on 27 May, plus 2/5/7 year

May 21 17:00 US Auctions 10-year TIPs

May 22 09:03 Sweden Holds bond exchange auction

May 22 10:00 Norway Details bond auction on 27 May

USD/CAD analysis forecast

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