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USD/CAD Weekly Fundamental Analysis, May 11 – 15, 2015 – Forecast

Weekly Analysis and Recommendation (usd cad forecast may 2015):

The USD/CAD bounced around most of the week to close at 1.2071 as the jump in oil prices and the drop in the US dollar weighed on the pair. This week data from Canada was very mixed with the IVEY PMI beating expectations and unemployment declining while building permits soared offsetting the decline in housing starts.

The Canadian dollar strengthened helped by a slight job market positive as broadly in-line US labour market indicators failed to boost the greenback. The pair has been unable to break the 1.20 support despite two attempts since earlier in May.

The momentum gained on the labour market data may not easily make it possible but another greenback-negative or loonie-positive in the coming days could see it happening.

Canada’s jobless rate stood at 6.8% in April, unchanged from March, and beating market estimates of a rise to 6.9%. The net change in employment was a weaker than expected -19,700 after +28,700 in the previous month while the consensus was a softer -5,000.

Non-farm payroll addition in the US in April was 223,000 almost meeting market estimate of 224,000 and sharply higher than the March reading of 126,000. Also, the unemployment rate slipped to 5.4% from 5.5% as predicted by forecasters. Also this effected usd/cad.

ForexTraq provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review in forex trading. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information for usd/cad in our weekly reports and we provide daily updates and outlooks for usd/cad.

USD/CAD Chart

Major Economic Events for the week that you should be monitoring in forex trading:

MONDAY, MAY 11

UK

GBP

BoE Asset Purchase Facility

£375

£375

UK

GBP

BoE Interest Rate Decision

0.5%

0.5%

TUESDAY, MAY 12

UK

GBP

NIESR GDP Estimate (3M) (Apr)

0.6%

WEDNESDAY, MAY 13

DE

EUR

Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) (Q1)

0.7%

EMU

EUR

Gross Domestic Product (YoY) (Q1)

0.9%

UK

GBP

BOE’s Governor Carney speech

UK

GBP

Bank of England Quarterly Inflation Report

EMU

EUR

ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts

US

USD

Retail Sales ex Autos (MoM) (Apr)

0.4%

US

USD

Retail Sales (MoM) (Apr)

0.9%

FRIDAY, MAY 15

JP

JPY

Bank of Japan Governor Kuroda Speech

Government Bond Auctions

Date Time Country

May 12 09:15 Norway Holds bond auction

May 13 09:10 Italy Auctions BTPs/CCTeus

May 13 09:30 Germany Eur 3bn Feb 2025 Bund

May 13 14:30 Sweden Details bond auction on 20 May

May 14 09:30 UK Auctions 2% 2020 Conventional Gilt

 

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