USD/CAD Weekly Fundamental Analysis, May 4-8, 2015 – Forecast

Weekly Analysis and Recommendation: 

The USD/CAD closed out the first trading day of the month at 1.2161 as oil and gold dipped on May 1st.  A spate of worse-than-expected economic numbers spooked investors in April, leading them to believe that the Federal Reserve would delay plans to raise interest rates for the first time since 2006. The dollar had rallied for eight months previously on hopes of greater demand for the U.S. currency when borrowing costs rise.

The most recent data, however, has told a more optimistic story. On Friday, a report from the Institute for Supply Management showed activity in the manufacturing sector in April remaining stable from March, after a series of declines. A day before, data from the Labor Department showed the number of Americans applying for first-time unemployment benefits tumbled last week to the lowest level in 15 years, a reading consistent with healthy job growth.

On Thursday, Canada’s National Energy Board, reported crude oil exports to the U.S. from Canada had hit a record high in January. Canada exported 3.11 millions of barrels of oil a day in January, 12.8 per higher than the same year-ago month and 80 per cent higher than five years ago.

Meanwhile companies such as Canadian Oil Sands, Cenovus and Suncor are turning in dismal earnings, but showing their production has grown since last year in the face of a global glut in oil.

Conventional oil production in Canada is expected to decline this year, the NEB said, but many of the largest companies, including Cenovus and Husky Energy, have oil sands projects set to come online in 2015. The Petroleum Services Association of Canada is predicting a 47 per cent drop in drilling of oil and gas wells in Canada in 2015, reducing the number of wells to 5,320 across the country.

ForexTraq provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weekly reports and we provide daily updates and outlooks.

USDCAD(60 minutes)20150501202717

Major Economic Events for the week that you should be monitoring:

Time Cur. Event Actual Forecast Previous
Monday, May 4, 2015
  CNY HSBC Manufacturing PMI (Apr) 49.2
  EUR German Manufacturing PMI (Apr) 51.9 51.9
Tuesday, May 5, 2015
  AUD Interest Rate Decision (May) 2.00% 2.25%
  GBP Construction PMI (Apr) 57.5 57.8
  USD ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI 56.5 56.5
  NZD Employment Change (QoQ) (Q1) 0.8% 1.2%
Wednesday, May 6, 2015
  AUD Retail Sales (MoM) (Mar) 0.4% 0.7%
  GBP Services PMI (Apr) 58.5 58.9
  USD ADP Nonfarm Employment 198K 189K
  CAD Ivey PMI (Apr) 47.9
Thursday, May 7, 2015
  AUD Employment Change (Apr) 5.0K 37.7K
Friday, May 8, 2015
  CNY Trade Balance (Apr) 3.08B
  USD Nonfarm Payrolls (Apr) 213K 126K
  USD Unemployment Rate (Apr) 5.4% 5.5%
  CAD Employment Change (Apr) 28.7K

Government Bond Auctions

Date Time Country

May 05 11:15 Austria Holds RAGB bond sale

May 06 11:03 Sweden Holds bond auction

May 06 11:30 Germany Eur 5bn Jun 2017 Schatz

May 07 10:30 Spain Auctions Bonos

May 07 11:10 France Auctions OATs

May 07 11:10 Sweden Holds inflation-linked bond auction

May 08 12:00 Norway Details bond auction on 12 May

May 08 17:30 Italy Announces details of BTP/CCTeu on 13 Ma

USD/CAD exchange rate





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