USD/JPY Analysis Forecast For 21 May 2015

Analysis and Recommendation (USD/JPY Analysis Forecast):

The USD/JPY added 21 points as the greenback continued to rally showing very little response to an outstanding GDP print in Japan. Annual growth jumped to 2.4% in the 1st quarter against a forecast of 1.5%. The USDJPY climbed to 120.91 coming close to its highest level in the last month.  U.S. housing starts jumped to their highest level in nearly 7-1/2 years in April and building permits soared, raising hopes that the economy was regaining strength after stalling the first quarter but also rekindling fears that the U.S. Federal Reserve would raise interest rates later this year.

Japan’s GDP grew by 0.6% in the Q1 — an annualized rate of 2.4%. Economists had estimated growth of 0.4%, or 1.6& annualized. Fourth quarter growth was revised down to 0.3 %, from 0.4 %. The effects of last year’s rise in the sales tax appear to be waning, with spending habits above forecasts.

Personal consumption rose 0.4 % quarter-on-quarter, versus predictions at 0.2 %. A 0.5% gain in late 2014 was revised down 0.4%, however. Business spending failed to impress, rising just 0.4%, versus forecasts at 0.6%. But revisions were positive: a 0.1% fall in late 2014 is now flat. The yen was little moved, weakening less than 0.1% to 120.6 after the results came out.

ForexTraq provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review in forex trading. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information for USD/JPY in our weekly reports.

Today’s economic releases actual vs. forecast:

Cur. Event Actual Forecast Previous
  AUD RBA Assist Gov Lowe Speaks        
  JPY GDP (YoY) (Q1) 2.4% 1.5% 1.1%
  JPY GDP (QoQ) (Q1) 0.6% 0.4% 0.3%
  AUD Westpac Consumer Sentiment 6.4%   -3.2%

 usdjpy chart

Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring for USD/JPY in forex trading:

Thursday, May 21, 2015

Cur. Event Actual Forecast Previous
  CNY HSBC Manufacturing PMI   49.3 48.9  
  EUR German Manufacturing PMI   52.3 52.1  
  GBP Retail Sales (MoM) (Apr)   0.4% -0.5%  
  USD Existing Home Sales (Apr)   5.24M 5.19M  
  USD Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing   8.0 7.5

Government Bond Auctions

Date Time Country

May 21 08:30 Spain Auctions Bonos

May 21 09:03 Sweden Holds bond exchange auction

May 21 09:10 France Auctions BTANs

May 21 09:30 UK Auctions 4.75% 2030 Conventional Gilt

May 21 10:10 France Auctions

May 21 15:30 Italy Announces details of CTZ/BTPei on 26 May

May 21 15:00 US Announces details of 2-year FRN on 27 May, plus 2/5/7 year

May 21 17:00 US Auctions 10-year TIPs

May 22 09:03 Sweden Holds bond exchange auction

May 22 10:00 Norway Details bond auction on 27 May


USD/JPY analysis forecast archieve


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