Analysis and Recommendation (USDJPY Analysis Forecast 22 May):
The USD/JPY declined 16 points to trade at 1.2118 after soaring on Wednesday touching a new recent high ahead of the Bank of Japan meeting tomorrow. After better than expected Japanese GDP the BoJ might get a pass at this meeting. The U.S. dollar traded narrowly at the lower 121 yen level Thursday morning in Tokyo, slightly off its two-month high hit overnight, as market players awaited the outcome of a Bank of Japan policy meeting through Friday.
Japanese shares hit a new 15-year high on Thursday on hopes that its long-moribund economy was finally coming to life, but weak China factory activity capped stock market gains in much of the rest of Asia. The dollar held on to broad gains after minutes from the Federal Reserve’s April meeting minutes contained no major surprises.
Weak Chinese readings feed concerns about cooling demand from the global powerhouse, but at the same time they often shore up Chinese stocks by fueling expectations that policymakers will role out extra monetary stimulus.
The closely-watched Fed meeting minutes showed many officials believed it would be premature to hike interest rates in June, which did not take the markets by surprise.
The U.S. economy has shown signs of strength – the latest being this week’s upbeat housing data – but overall recovery has not been as robust as expected. The economy grew by a modest 0.2 percent in the first quarter.
USD/JPY Technical Analysis Forecast 22 May
Currently USD/JPY is moving inside a wedge and supporting 80 days EMA. USDJPY had rised for the last three days with the power of USD Index and today having a correction over its 80 days EMA again. technically as long as it stays over 80 days EMA, up trend continues. Current targets seems to be 121.60 and 122 but if it breaks below 80 days EMA 120.80 would be its target. Also 119.30 is important and breaking below this level may change the trend.
Traders should be in BUY position above 119.30, with a couple of hours closing below 119.30, bears will handle the market.
USD/JPY Support And Resistance Levels 21 – 22 May
Pivot : 120,80
Support : 120,80 – 120,50 – 120,30
Resistance : 121,35 – 121,60 – 122,00
ForexTraq provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review in forex trading. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information for USD/JPY in our weekly reports.
Today’s economic releases actual vs. forecast:
| Cur. |
|
Event |
Actual |
Forecast |
Previous |
|
| CNY |
|
HSBC Manufacturing PMI |
49.1 |
49.3 |
48.9 |
|
|
Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring for USD/JPY in forex trading:
Friday, May 22, 2015
| Cur. |
|
Event |
Actual |
Forecast |
Previous |
|
| EUR |
|
German GDP (QoQ) (Q1) |
|
0.3% |
0.3% |
|
|
| JPY |
|
BoJ Press Conference |
|
|
|
|
|
| EUR |
|
German Ifo Business Climate Index (May) |
|
108.3 |
108.6 |
|
|
| EUR |
|
ECB President Draghi Speaks |
|
|
|
|
|
| GBP |
|
BoE Gov Carney Speaks |
|
|
|
|
|
| USD |
|
Core CPI (MoM) (Apr) |
|
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
|
| CAD |
|
Core CPI (MoM) (Apr) |
|
0.2% |
0.6% |
|
|
| CAD |
|
Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Mar) |
|
0.4% |
2.0% |
|
|
| GBP |
|
BoE Gov Carney Speaks |
|
|
|
|
|
| EUR |
|
ECB President Draghi Speaks |
|
|
|
|
|
| USD |
|
Fed Chair Yellen Speaks |
|
|
|
|
|
Government Bond Auctions
Date Time Country
May 21 08:30 Spain Auctions Bonos
May 21 09:03 Sweden Holds bond exchange auction
May 21 09:10 France Auctions BTANs
May 21 09:30 UK Auctions 4.75% 2030 Conventional Gilt
May 21 10:10 France Auctions
May 21 15:30 Italy Announces details of CTZ/BTPei on 26 May
May 21 15:00 US Announces details of 2-year FRN on 27 May, plus 2/5/7 year
May 21 17:00 US Auctions 10-year TIPs
May 22 09:03 Sweden Holds bond exchange auction
May 22 10:00 Norway Details bond auction on 27 May
USD/JPY analysis forecast
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