USD/JPY Analysis Forecast, May 14, 2015 – Forecast

Analysis and Recommendation (USD/JPY chart):

The USD/JPY dipped 4 points as the greenback continued to lose momentum. Current Account data released this morning printed better than expected helping to support the JPY. The yen is trading at 119.83 easing back under the 120 level.  The surplus in the current account, the broadest measure of Japan’s trade with the rest of the world, was ¥2.80 trillion ($23.3 billion) in March before seasonal adjustment, government data showed this morning The surplus was up more than twentyfold on year, boosted by a surge in income from investment abroad and an improved trade balance.

The weaker yen resulting from Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s economic policies has helped inflate the value of income earned abroad, while tumbling energy prices have trimmed the nation’s import bill, returning the trade balance to the black.

The current account surplus was much larger than a ¥2.07 trillion surplus forecast by surveyed economists, and the largest surplus since March 2008. Japan hasn’t regularly posted monthly current account surpluses over ¥2 trillion since before the global financial crisis when demand was strong for Japanese goods abroad.

Traders can expect the yen to weaken further by year-end, which should lift the surplus in the primary income balance. Overall, economists think that the current account surplus should rebound from 0.5% of GDP in 2014 to 2.5% this year, the highest since 2010.

ForexTraq provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review in forex trading. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information for USD/JPY in our weekly reports.

USD/JPY chart

Today’s economic releases actual vs. forecast:

Cur. Event Actual Forecast Previous
  USD API Weekly Crude Stock -2.000M -0.250M -1.500M
  NZD RBNZ Gov Wheeler Speaks
  JPY Adjusted Current Account 2.07T 1.34T 0.61T
  JPY Current Account n.s.a. (Mar) 2.795T 2.060T 1.440T
  AUD Wage Price Index (QoQ) (Q1) 0.5% 0.6% 0.6%
  CNY Fixed Asset Investment (YoY) 13.5% 13.5%
  CNY Industrial Production (YoY) 6.0% 5.6%


Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring in forex trading:

Thursday, May 14, 2015

Cur. Event Actual Forecast Previous
  NZD Business NZ PMI (Apr) 54.5
  NZD Core Retail Sales (QoQ) 1.5% 1.5%
  NZD Retail Sales (QoQ) (Q1) 1.5% 1.7%
  GBP RICS House Price Balance (Apr) 22% 21%
  CNY New Loans 1,210.0B 1,180.0B
  USD Core PPI (MoM) (Apr) 0.1% 0.2%
  USD Initial Jobless Claims 275K 265K
  USD PPI (MoM) (Apr) 0.2% 0.2%

Government Bond Auctions

Date Time Country

May 14 09:00 Ireland Eur 0.75bn 0.8% Mar 2022 IGBs

May 14 09:30 UK GBP 3.75bn 2% Jul 2020 Conventional Gilt

May 14 15:00 US Announces details of 10-year TIPS sale on 21 May

May 14 17:00 US USD 16bn 30-year bond

May 18 09:30 Germany Eur 1.5bn 12M (May 2016) Bubills

May 18 10:00 Belgium Auctions OLOs


USD/JPY analysis forecast 2015 May 14


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