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USD/JPY Analysis Forecast, May 19, 2015 – Forecast

Analysis and Recommendation (USD/JPY Forecast):

The USD/JPY added 41 points as the currency shifted back to neutral and moved into its recent trading range at 119.64. An official report today showed Japanese machine orders rose 2.9 percent in March from a month earlier, beating estimates by economists for a 1.5 percent gain.

The US dollar gains came after more weak data indicating a recovery in the world’s number one economy may not be as strong as thought, making an expected interest rate hike unlikely in the near future. US industrial production fell 0.3 percent in April, the fifth straight month of decline, according to Federal Reserve data, while the University of Michigan’s US consumer sentiment index plummeted to 88.6 in May from 95.9 in April.

That came after figures last week showed the US producer price index fell in April, confounding forecasts for a rise, while retail sales saw their weakest year-on-year growth since 2009.

“Investors are likely to start the week in cautious mode as markets assimilate the impact of weaker than expected US data and wait on developments in the Greek debt saga,” Ric Spooner, chief market analyst in Sydney at CMC Markets, wrote in an e-mail to clients.

“The first Fed rate hike now seems at least several months away. While this supports equity valuations, it also means that the outlook for world growth remains subdued,” he said, according to Bloomberg News.

ForexTraq provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review in forex trading. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information for USD/JPY in our weekly reports.

usdjpy chart

Today’s economic releases actual vs. forecast:

Cur. Event Actual Forecast Previous
  JPY Industrial Production (MoM) -0.3% -0.3%
  JPY Tertiary Industry Activity Index -0.5% 0.3%

 

Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring in forex trading for USD/JPY:

Tuesday, May 19, 2015

Cur. Event Actual Forecast Previous
  AUD Monetary Policy Minutes
  GBP CPI (YoY) (Apr)
  EUR German ZEW Economic 49.0 53.3
  EUR CPI (YoY) (Apr) 0.0% 0.0%
  USD Building Permits (Apr) 1.065M 1.042M
  CAD BoC Gov Poloz Speaks

Government Bond Auctions

Date Time Country

May 20 09:03 Sweden Holds bond auction

May 21 08:30 Spain Auctions Bonos

May 21 09:03 Sweden Holds bond exchange auction

May 21 09:10 France Auctions BTANs

May 21 09:30 UK Auctions 4.75% 2030 Conventional Gilt

May 21 10:10 France Auctions

May 21 15:30 Italy Announces details of CTZ/BTPei on 26 May

May 21 15:00 US Announces details of 2-year FRN on 27 May, plus 2/5/7 year

May 21 17:00 US Auctions 10-year TIPs

May 22 09:03 Sweden Holds bond exchange auction

May 22 10:00 Norway Details bond auction on 27 May

 

 

USD/JPY analysis forecast

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