USD/JPY Fundamental Analysis, May 12, 2015 – Forecast

Analysis and Recommendation (USD/JPY Forecast):

The USD/JPY added 16 points as the dollar recovered after the NFP release on Friday supplied mixed details. Jobs were off the mark but unemployment fell and wages increased which is better for the economy than soaring jobs.  Japan has been quiet since traders returned to the markets last Thursday after a 3 day holiday.  The pair is trading at 119.94.  The Bank of Japan’s is pushing its inflation target is adding to the shifting global monetary policy picture that has sparked a sovereign debt rout.

The nation’s 10-year yield has climbed almost 10 basis points since BOJ Gov. Haruhiko Kuroda said April 30 that he sees the price goal being reached around the first half of the 2016 fiscal year. When Kuroda introduced his record bond-buying plan in April 2013, he said he expected the goal would be reached in about two years. The change in tone is an admission of failure that suggests the need for further easing, which is technically difficult and requires a new policy regime, according to Tokai Tokyo Securities Co.

Consumer prices rose only 0.2 percent in March from a year earlier after no increase in February, excluding the effect of a sales-tax increase last April. The BOJ on April 30 cut its estimate for core inflation to 0.8 percent for the year through March from a January forecast of 1 percent.

Kuroda said last week there is no change to the central bank’s pledge to meet its objective as soon as possible even as he said there has been a delay in reaching the goal. Projections for CPI tumbled after the BOJ’s policy meeting on April 30.

ForexTraq provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review in forex trading. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information for USD/JPY in our weekly reports.

Today’s economic releases actual vs. forecast:

Cur. Event Actual Forecast Previous
  AUD Home Loans (MoM) (Mar) 1.0% 1.2%
  JPY 10-Year JGB Auction 0.369%

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Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring in forex trading:

Tuesday, May 12, 2015

Cur. Event Actual Forecast Previous
  GBP BRC Retail Sales Monitor (YoY) 3.2%
  AUD Home Loans (MoM) (Mar) 1.0% 1.2%
  GBP Industrial Production (MoM) 0.1% 0.1%
  GBP Manufacturing Production 0.3% 0.4%
  USD JOLTs Job Openings (Mar) 5.085M 5.133M
  USD Federal Budget Balance (Apr) 146.5B -53.0B

Government Bond Auctions

Date Time Country

May 12 09:15 Norway Holds bond auction

May 13 09:10 Italy Auctions BTPs/CCTeus

May 13 09:30 Germany Eur 3bn Feb 2025 Bund

May 13 14:30 Sweden Details bond auction on 20 May

May 14 09:30 UK Auctions 2% 2020 Conventional Gilt

USD/JPY Forecast 2015 Fundamentals


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