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USD/JPY Fundamental Analysis, May 13, 2015 – Forecast

Analysis and Recommendation (USD/JPY Forecast):

The USD/JPY climbed 10 points to trade at 120.18 as the US dollar gained momentum and the JPY eased as comments from the Bank of Japan indicate that more stimulus would be forth coming. The Abe administration plans to set a medium-term target to achieve its key fiscal reform goal in fiscal 2020, aiming to reduce the ratio of the primary deficit to gross domestic product to around 1 percent in fiscal 2018, sources said Monday. The dollar stood solid just below ¥120 in Tokyo trading Monday but saw its topside capped by profit-taking amid a lack of major trading incentives.

The dollar touched a two-week high against the yen and rose from a two-month low versus a basket of major currencies, supported by signs that the U.S. economy may be stabilizing after a recent soft patch.

China’s central bank on Sunday cut rates by 25 basis points — after two similar moves since November — as it tries to support the world’s number two economy, which grew last year at its slowest pace since 1990.

The move is the latest stimulus by the People’s Bank of China which has also twice this year reduced the amount of cash banks must keep in reserve. It followed another disappointing set of economic indicators, with inflation coming in below forecasts for April and exports unexpectedly falling.

“The consensus was that there’ll be at least one or two more stages of monetary easing in China, so there’s no big surprise,” Shoji Hirakawa, chief equity strategist at Okasan Securities in Tokyo, told Bloomberg News.

Dealers were already upbeat after a US Labor Department report Friday showed the economy added 223,000 jobs in April and unemployment fell to a seven-year low of 5.4 percent.

ForexTraq provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review in forex trading. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information for USD/JPY in our weekly reports.

USD/JPY Chart

Today’s economic releases actual vs. forecast:

Cur. Event Actual Forecast Previous
  AUD Home Loans (MoM) (Mar) 1.6% 1.0% 1.1%
  JPY 10-Year JGB Auction 0.369%

 

Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring in forex trading:

Wednesday, May 13, 2015

Cur.   Event Actual Forecast Previous
  NZD RBNZ Gov Wheeler Speaks
  JPY Adjusted Current Account 1.34T 0.60T
  AUD Wage Price Index (QoQ) (Q1) 0.6% 0.6%
  CNY Fixed Asset Investment (YoY) 13.5% 13.5%
  CNY Industrial Production (YoY) 6.0% 5.6%
  EUR German CPI (MoM) (Apr) -0.1% -0.1%
  EUR German GDP (QoQ) (Q1) 0.5% 0.7%
  GBP Claimant Count Change (Apr) -20.0K -20.7K
  GBP Unemployment Rate (Mar) 5.5% 5.6%
  EUR GDP (QoQ) (Q1) 0.5% 0.3%
  EUR Industrial Production (MoM) 0.2% 1.1%
  GBP BoE Inflation Report
  EUR ECB Monetary Policy Meeting
  USD Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Apr) 0.5% 0.4%
  USD Retail Sales (MoM) (Apr) 0.2% 0.9%
  USD Crude Oil Inventories -3.882M

Government Bond Auctions

Date Time Country

May 12 08:10 Dutch Eur 2-3bn 0.25% Jul 2025 DSL

May 12 09:15 Norway Eur 4bn 4.5% May 2019 bond

May 12 09:30 Germany Eur 1bn 0.1% Apr 2026 I/L Bund

May 12 17:00 US USD 24bn 3-year notes

May 13 09:10 Italy Eur 2.5-3bn 0.25% May 2018 & Eur 2-2.5bn 1.35% Apr 2022

BTPs, plus Eur 1-1.5bn 1.65% Mar 2032 & 3.25% Sep 2046

May 13 09:30 Germany Eur 3bn 0.5% Feb 2025 Bund

May 13 14:30 Sweden Details bond auction on 20 May

May 13 17:00 US USD 24bn 10-year notes

May 14 09:00 Ireland Eur 0.75bn 0.8% Mar 2022 IGBs

May 14 09:30 UK GBP 3.75bn 2% Jul 2020 Conventional Gilt

May 14 15:00 US Announces details of 10-year TIPS sale on 21 May

May 14 17:00 US USD 16bn 30-year bond

USD/JPY Forecast 2015

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