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USD/JPY Monthly Fundamental Forecast for June 2015

Outlook and Recommendation for usd/jpy June 2015

The USD/JPY soared to a record high this month to end at 124.16 surprising traders after the BoJ held rates and policy. The stronger US dollar seemed to have a magnified effect.

In recent months, negative sentiment towards the yen has disappeared despite the BoJ continuing to aggressively increase its balance sheet. Net JPY shorts have essentially been pared down to zero and volatility in the exchange rate has been low when compared to other currencies and its historical average Perhaps investors lost interest in shorting the currency after government advisor Hamada suggested that an exchange rate of 105 was acceptable

Since last autumn, the Japanese economy has offered many disappointments. The consumption tax hike in April 2014 is still hurting consumer demand. Major industrial companies have become less optimistic, despite improved. We expect the BoJ to expand its asset purchases further this summer, but more important in the future will be the degree of reforms aimed at boosting the labour supply and productivity growth, known as the “third arrow” of Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s Abenomics strategy. To date, no far-reaching reforms have been launched, but this strategy should not yet be written off.

“Abenomics”, the strategy launched by Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe in late 2012, is based on three “arrows” – fiscal stimulus, monetary stimulus and structural reforms. This policy is aimed at weakening the yen (JPY), accelerating the rise in wages and keeping bond yields low. In the next phase, this is to lead to an easing of deflation worries so that an inflation rate of 2 per cent can be reached, and to an increase in Japanese economic growth. So far, Abenomics has had limited success, but the goal of weakening the JPY has largely been achieved.

Further stimulus will weaken the JPY Growth has been disappointing, and there is still a long way to go before the inflation target is met. This has increased the need for more stimulus, and the BoJ should provide the bulk of this. Such moves would help to further weaken the JPY, which would benefit growth and inflation.

ForexTraq provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review in trading forex. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information for USD/JPY  in our weekly reports and we provide daily updates and outlooks.

USDJPY(60 minutes)20150530072425

Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring for USD/JPY  in trading forex:

Cur. Event

Actual

Forecast

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Monday, June 1, 2015

    CNY Manufacturing PMI

50.2

50.2

50.1

    CNY HSBC Manufacturing

49.2

49.2

49.1

    USD ISM Manufacturing PMI

 

52.0

51.5

Tuesday, June 2, 2015

    AUD RBA Rate Statement

 

    EUR German Unemployment

 

-10K

-8K

    GBP Construction PMI (May)

 

55.0

54.2

    EUR CPI (YoY) (May)

 

0.2%

0.0%

Wednesday, June 3, 2015

    AUD GDP (YoY) (Q1)

 

2.0%

2.5%

    GBP Services PMI (May)

 

59.2

59.5

    USD ADP Nonfarm

 

200K

169K

    EUR ECB Press Conference

 

    USD ISM Non-Manufacturing

 

57.0

57.8

Thursday, June 4, 2015

    AUD Retail Sales (MoM) (Apr)

 

0.4%

0.3%

    GBP Interest Rate Decision

 

0.50%

0.50%

Friday, June 5, 2015

    USD Nonfarm Payrolls (May)

 

225K

223K

    USD Unemployment Rate

 

5.4%

5.4%

Monday, June 8, 2015

    CNY Trade Balance (May)

 

34.13B

Tuesday, June 9, 2015

  CNY CPI (YoY) (May)

 

1.5%

Wednesday, June 10, 2015

  GBP Man Production

 

0.4%

  NZD Interest Rate Decision

 

3.50%

3.50%

Thursday, June 11, 2015

  AUD Employment Change

 

-2.9K

    CNY Industrial Production

 

5.9%

    USD Retail Sales (MoM)

 

0.8%

Friday, June 12, 2015

    USD PPI (MoM) (May)

 

0.3%

-0.4%

Monday, June 15, 2015

Tuesday, June 16, 2015

    GBP CPI (YoY) (May)

 

-0.1%

    EUR German ZEW Economic

 

41.9

Wednesday, June 17, 2015

    GBP Claimant Count Change

 

-12.6K

  EUR CPI (YoY) (May)

 

  NZD GDP (QoQ) (Q1)

 

0.8%

Friday, June 19, 2015

    CAD Core Retail Sales (MoM)

 

0.5%

Monday, June 22, 2015

    China – Dragon Boat Festival

 

 

USD/JPY analysis forecast archieve

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