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USD/JPY Weekly Analysis Forecast – June 15-19, 2015 – Forecast

usdjpy weekly bnsnlaWeekly Analysis and Recommendation:

The USD/JPY ended the week flat at 123.42 after comments from Bank of Japan Governor Kuroda weighed on the currency. After Kuroda’s comment on JPY stimulus program which has been fading USD/JPY bullish momentum, the upper ceiling of USDJPY may be below 125-level, Next week, USDJPY may stay around 123 until the FOMC meeting. “The Fed may display a more cautious tone over tightening monetary policy signaling a more gradual pace of rate hikes. The negative impact on the US dollar may prove modest as it has already weakened in advance of the FOMC’s upcoming meeting,”

The Bank of Japan governor’s remark playing down the chance of more weakness in the yen was not part of a concerted effort by Tokyo to keep the currency’s sharp declines in check, government and central bank officials with knowledge of the matter said.

The yen jumped 2 yen from a near 13-year low against the dollar after Governor Haruhiko Kuroda told parliament on Wednesday the yen was unlikely to fall further on a real effective exchange rate basis as it was already “very weak.”

The remark caught finance ministry bureaucrats off guard. The Ministry of Finance (MOF) has direct jurisdiction over currency policy.

BOJ officials say Kuroda had spoken off the cuff as he was not using a prepared script when he made the remark and wasn’t signaling any change to the central bank’s view that a weak yen was beneficial to Japan’s economy.

ForexTraq provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weekly reports and we provide daily updates and outlooks.

USDJPY(15 minutes)20150613070901

Major Economic Events for the week that you should be monitoring

 

Cur.

 

Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

 

Monday, June 15, 2015

 

  RUB

 

Interest Rate Decision (Jun)

 

11.50%

12.50%

 

 

Tuesday, June 16, 2015

 

  GBP

 

CPI (YoY) (May)

 

0.1%

-0.1%

 

 

 

  EUR

 

German ZEW Economic

 

37.1

41.9

 

 

 

  USD

 

Building Permits (May)

 

1.100M

1.140M

 

 

Wednesday, June 17, 2015

 

  GBP

 

Claimant Count Change (May)

 

-12.5K

-12.6K

 

 

 

  EUR

 

CPI (YoY) (May)

 

0.3%

0.3%

 

 

 

  USD

 

FOMC Statement  

 

 

 

 

 

 

  USD

 

Fed Interest Rate Decision

 

0.25%

0.25%

 

 

 

  USD

 

Fed Chair Yellen Speaks  

 

 

 

 

 

Thursday, June 18, 2015

 

  NZD

 

GDP (QoQ) (Q1)

 

 

0.8%

 

 

 

  GBP

 

Retail Sales (MoM) (May)

 

0.2%

1.2%

 

 

 

  USD

 

Core CPI (MoM) (May)

 

0.2%

0.3%

 

 

 

  USD

 

Philadelphia Fed

 

8.0

6.7

 

 

Friday, June 19, 2015

 

  CAD

 

Core CPI (MoM) (May)

 

0.3%

0.1%

 

 

 

  CAD

 

Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Apr)

 

0.3%

0.5%

   

Upcoming Government Bond Auctions

Date Time Country 

Jun 15 00:00 UK New 30 year I/L syndicated Gilt auction

Jun 17 11:03 Sweden Holds bond auction

Jun 17 11:30 Germany Eur 3bn Feb 2025 Bund

Jun 18 10:30 Spain Auctions Bonos/Obligations

Jun 18 11:10 France Auctions BTANs

Jun 18 12:10 France Auctions OATi

Jun 18 17:00 US Details 2-year FRNs

Jun 18 17:00 US Announces details of 2/5/7 year notes

Jun 18 18:00 US Auctions 30-year TIPs sale on 24 Jun

 

 

USD/JPY analysis forecast

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