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USD/JPY Weekly Analysis Forecast, May 18-22, 2015 – Forecast

Weekly Analysis and Recommendation (USD/JPY Weekly Analysis Forecast):

The USD/JPY gained just 7 points as the US dollar continued to decline this week and the yen fell on comments from BoJ Kuroda. The Bank said it was going to push the 2% inflation level, which seems to indicate additional stimulus in the near term. The pair is trading at 119.23.  Bank of Japan looks poised to retain its currently policy at the May 22 interest rate decision, and the preliminary 1Q Gross Domestic Product report may encourage the central bank to carry its wait-and-see approach into the second-half of 2015 as the growth rate is expected to increase an annualized 1.6% after expanding 1.5% during the last three-months of 2014.

“The weaker US retail sales report has weighed modestly on USD/JPY. The slowdown in US growth is pushing back Fed rate hike expectations into next year. Still long-term US yields have adjusted higher while short-term yields have remained more stable dampening downside risk for USD/JPY. However, the recent improvement in Japan’s external account surplus is encouraging USDJPY selling,” BTMU adds.

The dollar index slipped putting it on track to fall for a fifth week, the longest stretch of declines in four years, as disappointing data on domestic factory activity and consumer sentiment stirred doubts about the U.S. economic growth.

Earlier, this measure of the greenback against a group of currencies including the euro and yen .The greenback bounced from a four-month low as buying emerged with lower European bond yields, and as traders booked profits on this week’s gains in other currencies against the greenback.

ForexTraq provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review in forex trading. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information for USD/JPY in our weekly reports and we provide daily updates and outlooks.

Historical: From 2011 to present

Highest: 121.50 in December 2014

Average: 83.18 over this period

Lowest: 75.58 on Oct 31, 2011

usdjpy week

Major Economic Events for the week that you should be monitoring for USD/JPY in forex trading

Cur. Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

Monday, May 18, 2015

Tuesday, May 19, 2015

  AUD Monetary Meeting Minutes

 

  GBP CPI (YoY)

 

  EUR German ZEW Economic Sentiment

 

49.0

53.3

  EUR CPI (YoY)

 

0.0%

0.0%

  USD Building Permits (Apr)

 

1.065M

1.042M

  CAD BoC Gov Poloz Speaks

 

Wednesday, May 20, 2015

  GBP BoE MPC Meeting Minutes

 

  USD FOMC Meeting Minutes

 

Thursday, May 21, 2015

  CNY HSBC Manufacturing

 

49.4

48.9

  EUR German Manufacturing

 

52.3

52.1

  GBP Retail Sales

 

0.4%

-0.5%

  USD Existing Home Sales

 

5.24M

5.19M

  USD Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing

 

8.2

7.5

Friday, May 22, 2015

  EUR German GDP

 

0.3%

0.3%

  EUR German Manufacturing

 

52.1

  EUR German Ifo Business

 

108.3

108.6

  USD Core CPI

 

0.2%

0.2%

Government Bond Auctions

Date Time Country

May 18 09:30 Germany Eur 1.5bn 12M (May 2016) Bubills

May 18 10:00 Belgium Auctions OLOs

May 20 09:03 Sweden Holds bond auction

May 21 08:30 Spain Auctions Bonos

May 21 09:03 Sweden Holds bond exchange auction

May 21 09:10 France Auctions BTANs

May 21 09:30 UK Auctions 4.75% 2030 Conventional Gilt

May 21 10:10 France Auctions

May 21 15:30 Italy Announces details of CTZ/BTPei on 26 May

May 21 15:00 US Announces details of 2-year FRN on 27 May, plus 2/5/7 year

May 21 17:00 US Auctions 10-year TIPs

May 22 09:03 Sweden Holds bond exchange auction

May 22 10:00 Norway Details bond auction on 27 May

USD/JPY analysis forecast

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