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USD/JPY Weekly Fundamental Analysis, May 11 – 15, 2015 – Forecast

Weekly Analysis and Recommendation (USD/JPY Forecast 2015 May):

The USD/JPY remained in a tight trading range this week closing at 119.78 with the Japanese markets shuttered for the first 3 trading day for a local holiday.  The yen’s decline against the dollar and other currencies helps Japanese exports and boosts the yen-dominated value of overseas earnings. But with the yen stabilizing against the dollar, those gains are expected to dry up in the current fiscal year.

The Japanese yen is being adversely affected by weak sentiment among policymakers as they expect consumer spending to remain suppressed. “Some members acknowledged that annual consumer inflation might turn negative in coming months depending on energy price moves. Others pointed to the slow recovery in consumption and caution held by some companies on overseas developments, according to the minutes.

BoJ members expressed the view that improvements in indicators of private consumption had lagged somewhat behind the improvement in employment and income situation,” according to Reuters.

ForexTraq provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review in forex trading. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weekly reports and we provide daily updates and outlooks.

Historical: From 2011 to present

Highest: 121.50 in December 2014

Average: 83.18 over this period

Lowest: 75.58 on Oct 31, 2011

USDJPY(60 minutes)20150509053508

Major Economic Events for the week that you should be monitoring in forex trading:

MONDAY, MAY 11

UK

GBP

BoE Asset Purchase Facility

£375

£375

UK

GBP

BoE Interest Rate Decision

0.5%

0.5%

TUESDAY, MAY 12

UK

GBP

NIESR GDP Estimate (3M) (Apr)

0.6%

WEDNESDAY, MAY 13

DE

EUR

Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) (Q1)

0.7%

EMU

EUR

Gross Domestic Product (YoY) (Q1)

0.9%

UK

GBP

BOE’s Governor Carney speech

UK

GBP

Bank of England Quarterly Inflation Report

EMU

EUR

ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts

US

USD

Retail Sales ex Autos (MoM) (Apr)

0.4%

US

USD

Retail Sales (MoM) (Apr)

0.9%

FRIDAY, MAY 15

JP

JPY

Bank of Japan Governor Kuroda Speech

Government Bond Auctions

Date Time Country

May 12 09:15 Norway Holds bond auction

May 13 09:10 Italy Auctions BTPs/CCTeus

May 13 09:30 Germany Eur 3bn Feb 2025 Bund

May 13 14:30 Sweden Details bond auction on 20 May

May 14 09:30 UK Auctions 2% 2020 Conventional Gilt

 

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